NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	104		Excitement	4.6 [925]		MVP	Kenny Thomas (SAC): +17.1%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	1.3 [1075]		LVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (SEA): -7.6%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.03	21	63%	0.08	2	-0.02	10	100%	0.04
Jerome James	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	14	69%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Evans	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	75%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	6	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	14	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	10	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	11	36%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.04	0.02	10	85%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	-0.00	14	66%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.03	-0.05	21	61%	0.16	4	-0.06	9	89%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	11	56%	0.07	2	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	11	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.5	30.4	18.4	33.6	3.7	35.2	149.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +37.8%

SAC +4.6%

SEA -10.9%

SAC +14.0%

SAC +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAC	NBA	SEA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.9	14.1	15.5	113.0	123.4	104.0
season	16.5	14.7		109.5	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.6		106.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.8	16.9	16.5	17.6	16.9
SAC	12.0	15.2	12.9	16.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	16	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-7	2	14.7	17.4	-2.72	12.4	14.4	-2.00
Reggie Evans	31	30	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.03	-7	-5	-2	16.7	17.1	-0.39	14.0	14.1	-0.04
Luke Ridnour	70	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-7	2	16.3	18.8	-2.48	15.1	10.8	4.34
Vladimir Radmanovic	59	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-9	6	17.2	16.5	0.75	14.3	13.7	0.57
Antonio Daniels	30	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	-4	-4	17.7	16.6	1.14	11.9	15.2	-3.27
Jerome James	68	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.16	-5	-7	2	17.7	14.7	2.96	13.8	14.6	-0.79
Rashard Lewis	79	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-7	2	16.8	17.8	-0.97	14.1	13.5	0.61
Nick Collison	30	32	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	0	-12	16.7	17.0	-0.35	13.8	14.2	-0.43
Ray Allen	77	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	17.1	16.1	0.96	14.4	12.2	2.19

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	68	69	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	-2	16	14.7	12.3	2.43	16.5	18.2	-1.65
Mike Bibby	90	88	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	2	8	14.3	9.5	4.77	17.2	10.2	6.99
Kenny Thomas	65	65	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	5	2	14.2	13.7	0.54	16.2	18.8	-2.61
Peja Stojakovic	77	75	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	8	-4	13.9	14.8	-0.93	16.3	19.6	-3.33
Cuttino Mobley	72	73	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.23	2	10	-8	13.5	15.9	-2.35	17.0	16.6	0.45
Bobby Jackson	34	31	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.05	11	1	10	14.7	13.7	0.96	17.7	16.6	1.12
Maurice Evans	13	12	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	5	2	14.7	14.0	0.73	17.5	16.8	0.65
Darius Songaila	24	23	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	6	0	13.3	14.3	-0.98	16.4	17.1	-0.72
Corliss Williamson	15	14	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	10	-8	12.4	14.4	-1.98	21.8	16.1	5.72
Brian Skinner	12	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	15	-18	13.3	14.2	-0.84	17.5	16.9	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.84,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 81, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1	96.0%
OKC 79, LAL 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1	95.4%
SAC 96, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.83,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.98,1,0.99,1,0.95,1	95.3%