NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	78		Excitement	6.8 [430]		MVP	Devean George (LAL): +6.4%
San Antonio Spurs	88		Comeback	3.8 [598]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -19.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devean George	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	2	133%	0.14	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Slava Medvedenko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Walton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	7	29%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	26	50%	0.07	4	-0.18	10	90%	0.02
Karl Malone	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.02	0.02	10	42%	-0.04	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Gary Payton	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	8	22%	-0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	14	46%	-0.07	4	-0.12	13	23%	-0.17

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	11	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	80%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	19	47%	0.03	1	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	18	64%	0.18	7	-0.25	11	36%	-0.09
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	7	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.4	40.6	18.3	27.6	3.6	35.0	156.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.5%

LAL -15.1%

SAS +1.0%

SAS +30.6%

SAS +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.8	15.7	83.9	95.7	100.5
season	15.4	15.9		102.8	100.1
opponent	15.8	15.6		92.7	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.5	15.2	15.0	15.8	15.4
SAS	13.9	17.5	16.3	15.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	50	50	0.04	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-15	20	16.3	14.3	1.93	15.9	15.6	0.37
Luke Walton	9	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-8	6	12.1	15.7	-3.60	15.4	15.8	-0.42
Kareem Rush	19	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-4	-2	14.1	15.7	-1.58	14.8	16.0	-1.24
Gary Payton	73	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.13	-2	-8	6	15.4	15.1	0.27	16.0	15.1	0.86
Shaquille O'Neal	81	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-10	10	15.9	12.1	3.77	16.4	11.2	5.20
Slava Medvedenko	18	18	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	0	-10	15.3	15.4	-0.11	14.9	16.0	-1.03
Kobe Bryant	86	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-3	-4	15.5	13.9	1.63	15.6	18.0	-2.41
Karl Malone	84	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	1	-12	15.2	16.9	-1.69	15.6	17.1	-1.49
Derek Fisher	45	45	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.20	-17	7	-24	14.7	16.0	-1.31	15.5	16.0	-0.47

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	79	80	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-3	16	15.8	15.3	0.54	15.4	14.8	0.60
Tim Duncan	74	76	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	3	4	16.5	12.8	3.65	15.8	13.4	2.46
Manu Ginobili	58	59	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	-3	16	15.9	15.6	0.24	15.7	14.8	0.90
Devin Brown	30	30	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	-2	14	14.0	16.6	-2.63	14.1	16.0	-1.92
Robert Horry	46	47	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.11	10	0	10	14.0	17.5	-3.50	13.8	16.9	-3.10
Kevin Willis	7	6	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	6	-2	13.1	16.0	-2.85	13.0	15.5	-2.53
Bruce Bowen	61	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.29	-4	14	-18	16.3	14.8	1.50	15.4	15.3	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	57	57	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.19	-1	11	-12	16.6	14.5	2.12	16.3	13.9	2.36
Hedo Turkoglu	35	36	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.08	-1	11	-12	16.3	15.5	0.78	15.9	15.0	0.85
Jason Hart	13	13	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.10	-3	13	-16	15.3	15.8	-0.54	14.8	15.4	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.22,0.38,0.3,0.48,0.53,0.63,0.74,0.59,0.78,0.9,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 100, CHA 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.63,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.73,0.64,0.6,0.82,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	92.1%
SAS 85, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.99,1	92.1%
DEN 119, MIA 124	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.97,1,1	91.9%