NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	119		Excitement	7.6 [334]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +25.4%
Miami Heat	124		Comeback	3.3 [664]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -24.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.02	0.04	11	96%	0.25	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	4	87%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	7	62%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	14	53%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Axel Toupane	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JaKarr Sampson	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.02	0.03	6	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.04	-0.05	0.03	10	55%	0.03	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	19	53%	0.05	5	-0.12	5	60%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	14	46%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	6	0%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.08	0.18	0.01	7	90%	0.35	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.06
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	0.00	13	69%	0.20	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.08	0.00	10	77%	0.23	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	11	67%	0.16	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.04	0.02	10	74%	0.18	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	10	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.14	0.03	15	51%	-0.05	5	-0.19	7	71%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.3	26.4	15.5	28.2	2.0	35.3	134.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.6%

MIA +9.6%

DEN -14.5%

MIA +4.1%

MIA +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	14.9	119.0	124.0	105.1
season	14.9	15.5		104.3	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.1	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	14.8	14.1	14.2	14.0
MIA	14.5	16.5	15.3	13.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaKarr Sampson	46	47	0.48	-0.98	1.47	0.01	16	-21	37	13.2	14.7	-1.48	16.0	13.6	2.38
Kenneth Faried	52	53	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.06	8	-13	21	13.5	14.6	-1.12	15.9	13.5	2.44
Gary Harris	70	72	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.21	12	-17	29	13.7	14.9	-1.23	15.1	14.0	1.06
Nikola Jokic	58	59	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.21	4	-9	13	13.8	14.4	-0.67	14.6	14.9	-0.28
Emmanuel Mudiay	69	70	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.26	4	-9	13	13.6	15.0	-1.34	14.5	15.4	-0.91
Axel Toupane	26	24	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	6	-17	15.2	13.6	1.51	15.3	14.6	0.75
Joffrey Lauvergne	28	26	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	8	-21	14.7	13.8	0.99	13.5	15.2	-1.70
D.J. Augustin	53	54	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.36	-11	6	-17	14.4	13.7	0.68	14.0	15.7	-1.65
Will Barton	42	40	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.12	-20	15	-35	15.0	13.3	1.66	14.5	14.9	-0.48
Darrell Arthur	56	55	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.29	-14	9	-23	14.6	13.4	1.21	14.0	15.7	-1.77

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	66	66	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.23	17	-12	29	14.3	15.7	-1.43	15.1	12.1	3.00
Justise Winslow	68	67	0.66	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-8	21	14.4	15.5	-1.09	14.7	12.7	2.05
Hassan Whiteside	64	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.23	10	-5	15	14.4	15.3	-0.90	14.5	13.2	1.28
Luol Deng	72	74	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.22	6	-1	7	14.4	15.7	-1.33	13.2	16.3	-3.06
Goran Dragic	69	70	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.17	-1	6	-7	14.9	14.4	0.59	13.5	15.4	-1.94
Dwyane Wade	65	64	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.31	-6	11	-17	15.1	14.2	0.86	13.6	14.8	-1.15
Josh McRoberts	12	12	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	4	-3	15.6	14.6	0.94	14.0	14.0	-0.05
Joe Johnson	62	61	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.25	-10	15	-25	15.2	14.0	1.18	14.1	14.0	0.07
Amar'e Stoudemire	22	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	10	-15	16.3	14.3	1.94	13.3	14.3	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.84,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 100, DAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.63,0.57,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.79,0.96,0.96,1	93.4%
ORL 94, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1	93.3%
NJN 96, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.96,0.97,1,1	92.7%