NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	83		Excitement	8.7 [130]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +10.1%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	3.9 [451]		LVP	David Wesley (NOH): -22.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.08,0.05	0.09	-0.05	-0.01	18	72%	0.22	4	-0.17	10	80%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.07	-0.00	8	45%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Steven Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.11	-0.00	11	46%	-0.06	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	7	21%	-0.12	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.19	-0.00	-0.03	9	23%	-0.07	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Stacey Augmon	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	7	29%	-0.08	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23	-0.12	-0.14	-0.03	13	37%	-0.14	4	-0.09	1	0%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.13	-0.00	17	55%	0.28	4	-0.18	4	50%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	80%	0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	21	49%	0.05	1	-0.02	9	44%	-0.20
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	12	57%	0.11	3	-0.19	4	75%	0.04
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	6	31%	-0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	4.5	32.5	18.7	35.2	3.7	42.2	165.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +91.9%

NOH -19.6%

NOH -40.3%

MIA +6.6%

MIA +11.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIA	NBA	NOH	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.7	92.2	97.8	100.5
season	16.0	16.2		99.3	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.8	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	12.8	17.6	19.6	18.3	16.9
MIA	16.0	17.6	14.7	13.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	1	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-6	8	14.0	16.9	-2.94	0.0	15.6	-15.61
David Wesley	69	68	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-11	18	15.8	20.5	-4.65	15.2	15.4	-0.16
George Lynch	48	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.30	8	-12	20	15.8	18.2	-2.35	15.6	14.8	0.80
Jamaal Magloire	76	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.29	2	-6	8	16.2	20.8	-4.59	15.3	14.9	0.39
David West	22	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	3	-10	19.6	16.0	3.61	16.9	14.7	2.19
Darrell Armstrong	35	35	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.01	-14	10	-24	19.5	15.3	4.21	15.5	15.1	0.33
Baron Davis	81	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-3	2	16.7	19.2	-2.57	15.0	18.2	-3.29
Stacey Augmon	36	33	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.08	-14	10	-24	18.6	15.8	2.83	16.2	14.7	1.56
P.J. Brown	82	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.42	-3	-1	-2	16.8	17.6	-0.78	14.7	19.8	-5.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	54	54	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.44	12	-8	20	15.9	14.3	1.65	17.4	16.1	1.29
Dwyane Wade	68	69	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	-4	12	14.7	16.9	-2.15	17.7	14.4	3.24
Eddie Jones	81	83	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-1	6	15.0	18.2	-3.29	16.7	20.0	-3.35
Caron Butler	65	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	1	2	14.8	16.6	-1.81	15.7	20.5	-4.81
Lamar Odom	70	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	0	4	14.9	16.6	-1.68	16.8	17.4	-0.58
Wang Zhi-zhi	7	7	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.06	3	1	2	13.6	15.4	-1.83	22.3	16.5	5.83
Rasual Butler	24	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	3	-2	16.6	14.8	1.81	20.5	15.7	4.81
Samaki Walker	4	3	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	7	-10	23.2	14.9	8.37	13.3	17.0	-3.70
Rafer Alston	29	28	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	9	-14	17.3	14.3	2.99	15.8	17.4	-1.58
Brian Grant	43	45	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.02	-8	12	-20	14.6	15.9	-1.35	15.9	17.9	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.3,0.43,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.34,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.58,1	92.0%
MIN 85, OKC 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.38,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	91.6%
NJN 87, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.55,0.45,0.42,1	90.7%