NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	113		Excitement	7.8 [271]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +27.6%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	36.2 [10]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): -21.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.28	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.28	0.08	0.23	0.03	14	68%	0.32	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.07
Steve Nash	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	15	61%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,-0.04,0	0.07	-0.06	0.02	19	69%	0.10	4	-0.10	17	100%	0.14
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	5	20%	-0.15	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	12	45%	-0.15	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.06

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	6	69%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	8	57%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	59%	0.02	1	-0.01	10	50%	-0.05
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	70%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	1	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,-0.08	-0.08	0.09	-0.17	0.01	20	68%	-0.04	2	-0.05	19	63%	-0.10
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	9	38%	-0.04	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.06,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	18	47%	-0.10	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	4.5	43.4	21.2	29.9	3.7	50.5	180.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -15.9%

DAL +55.4%

DAL +29.4%

SAS -16.8%

SAS -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	13.4	15.5	15.5	114.1	110.0	101.6
season	15.1	15.7		108.6	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		96.9	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	14.2	13.6	12.3	13.4
SAS	14.6	14.0	17.5	16.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	90	91	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-7	17	13.3	14.2	-0.89	15.7	13.8	1.91
Raef LaFrentz	30	28	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.61	0	3	-3	12.1	14.0	-1.89	15.8	15.4	0.42
Steve Nash	88	88	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-2	7	13.6	12.1	1.49	15.5	15.5	0.02
Nick Van Exel	86	87	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-4	11	13.2	15.2	-2.00	15.3	16.7	-1.35
Michael Finley	96	97	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	-2	7	13.2	20.0	-6.79	15.7	9.0	6.72
Eduardo Najera	28	30	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.12	5	-2	7	14.2	13.1	1.17	15.1	15.7	-0.55
Walt Williams	15	13	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.21	7	-4	11	12.4	13.6	-1.20	12.5	16.0	-3.43
Raja Bell	26	26	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	8	-13	14.2	13.1	1.11	16.3	15.2	1.12
Adrian Griffin	6	7	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	9	-15	17.5	13.2	4.35	9.6	16.0	-6.40
Shawn Bradley	30	33	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.10	-13	16	-29	14.1	13.1	0.98	16.8	14.9	1.89

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	76	72	0.49	-0.99	1.48	0.31	6	-9	15	15.5	15.5	-0.03	13.8	12.3	1.49
Kevin Willis	19	20	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.12	5	-8	13	16.7	15.2	1.50	14.0	13.3	0.73
Malik Rose	19	21	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.01	5	-8	13	13.3	16.0	-2.72	15.3	12.9	2.44
Speedy Claxton	29	29	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.23	-5	2	-7	15.4	15.5	-0.10	14.0	13.2	0.83
Tim Duncan	94	92	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-8	13	15.5	15.5	0.02	13.2	15.9	-2.63
Danny Ferry	17	16	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	9	-21	16.2	15.4	0.79	12.7	13.5	-0.79
Manu Ginobili	45	47	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.59	7	-10	17	14.8	16.1	-1.31	13.2	13.6	-0.46
Tony Parker	72	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.65	2	-5	7	15.4	15.9	-0.47	13.2	14.0	-0.83
Stephen Jackson	80	79	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.30	-19	16	-35	16.0	13.6	2.34	13.3	13.9	-0.67
David Robinson	49	49	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.63	-9	6	-15	15.8	15.2	0.58	12.8	14.0	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.81,0.75,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 103, NOP 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.83,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.58,0	91.5%
SAC 103, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.81,0.84,0.42,0	90.8%
MIN 100, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.28,0	90.6%