NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	7.4 [348]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +38.2%
New Orleans Pelicans	100		Comeback	18.5 [108]		LVP	Darius Miller (NOP): -20.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.38	0.09	0.31	0.01	14	67%	0.52	4	-0.14	11	91%	0.12
Terrence Jones	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.13	0.09	-0.01	17	57%	0.23	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.05
Donatas Motiejunas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Francisco Garcia	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.00	12	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	5	57%	0.02	3	-0.10	11	36%	-0.10
Chandler Parsons	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	15	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.27	-0.01	0.01	17	83%	0.40	2	-0.15	8	87%	0.03
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.06	0.00	13	65%	0.20	1	-0.02	11	73%	-0.09
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Withey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	11	43%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	8	29%	-0.04	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.05
Jason Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	13	38%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	6	17%	-0.10	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	32.5	16.6	28.1	1.6	38.3	145.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +24.3%

HOU +12.0%

HOU +1.5%

HOU +12.1%

HOU +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NOP	NBA	HOU	NOP	NBA
this game	14.3	16.5	15.1	109.6	107.5	105.2
season	14.3	15.5		109.5	105.6
opponent	15.3	15.2		108.5	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	15.5	13.2	12.9	14.3
NOP	16.0	16.5	16.8	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	61	62	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.45	13	-10	23	13.4	16.0	-2.60	16.1	17.1	-0.98
Jeremy Lin	77	77	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.46	11	-8	19	14.2	14.9	-0.73	16.1	18.2	-2.15
Chandler Parsons	90	88	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.37	10	-7	17	14.2	17.7	-3.56	16.3	20.2	-3.94
Terrence Jones	81	79	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.49	5	-2	7	14.7	12.2	2.45	16.3	17.5	-1.21
James Harden	81	80	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.47	5	-2	7	14.2	15.2	-0.94	16.2	18.2	-2.04
Omri Casspi	11	10	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	13	-23	19.8	13.6	6.20	18.6	16.2	2.38
Donatas Motiejunas	35	35	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.21	-2	5	-7	13.4	14.9	-1.45	16.9	16.2	0.62
Francisco Garcia	17	18	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.01	-9	12	-21	15.8	14.0	1.74	18.8	15.9	2.86
Isaiah Canaan	17	16	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.04	-8	11	-19	14.9	14.2	0.73	18.2	16.1	2.15

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	22	22	0.38	-0.88	1.27	-0.06	15	-18	33	19.0	15.7	3.25	14.8	14.2	0.62
Austin Rivers	36	37	0.32	-0.82	1.14	-0.06	13	-16	29	18.2	15.4	2.76	15.2	13.8	1.44
Greg Stiemsma	40	40	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.24	-3	0	-3	17.2	15.9	1.23	13.5	15.0	-1.51
Jeff Withey	2	2	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.05	2	-5	7	11.5	16.6	-5.08	18.0	14.3	3.74
Al-Farouq Aminu	41	42	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-5	7	16.1	16.8	-0.67	15.2	13.7	1.54
Anthony Morrow	8	9	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.11	-3	0	-3	17.5	16.4	1.12	14.7	14.3	0.36
Darius Miller	56	57	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.45	1	-4	5	16.9	15.8	1.19	14.4	14.2	0.16
Eric Gordon	82	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.54	-1	-2	1	16.3	18.0	-1.73	14.6	12.7	1.82
Anthony Davis	62	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.52	-3	0	-3	15.8	17.8	-1.95	13.7	15.5	-1.81
Brian Roberts	60	60	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.35	-15	12	-27	15.6	18.1	-2.46	13.4	15.9	-2.51
Jason Smith	56	58	-1.13	0.63	-1.76	-0.46	-23	20	-43	15.7	17.6	-1.95	14.6	13.9	0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.83,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.72,0.78,0.73,0	91.8%
DAL 113, SAS 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.81,0.75,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.68,0.58,0	91.5%
SAC 103, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.81,0.84,0.42,0	91.2%