NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	141		Excitement	13.1 [7]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): +72.8%
Sacramento Kings	137		Comeback	22.7 [28]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (SAC): -24.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.73	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.69,0.73	0.20	0.51	-0.02	26	68%	0.75	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.11
Walt Williams	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.14,0.14,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.42	0.06	0.36	-0.00	8	62%	0.42	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.36	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.29,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.20	0.18	0.03	20	74%	0.38	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	18	53%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	11	35%	-0.06	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21	-0.00	-0.20	0.01	21	52%	-0.12	2	-0.10	6	100%	0.06

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,0.02,0.02,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	-0.05	0.31	-0.01	14	56%	0.37	5	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.24,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	13	59%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.01,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	10	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	-0.11	0.00	30	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	10	60%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.06	0.00	7	71%	0.00	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.06
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	8	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.04,0.05,-0.04,-0.21,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	11	59%	-0.01	3	-0.13	12	50%	-0.16
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.24	-0.24	0.02	-0.23	0.03	15	50%	-0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	30.1	18.4	29.5	3.4	35.4	1.7	14.7	1.6	18.1	182.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +88.8%

DAL +23.6%

SAC -56.5%

DAL +7.4%

SAC -13.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.6	14.5	15.5	117.5	115.1	101.6
season	15.1	14.0		108.6	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.3		98.6	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	14.9	14.2	16.9	14.1	13.6	14.9
SAC	9.6	15.2	15.1	19.2	16.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	29	31	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.39	13	-9	22	13.4	15.0	-1.60	18.1	13.2	4.87
Steve Nash	107	108	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.44	9	-5	14	14.2	18.2	-4.04	14.5	14.8	-0.36
Nick Van Exel	101	99	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-3	10	14.3	16.5	-2.26	14.8	13.0	1.80
Dirk Nowitzki	120	119	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	14.6	0.0	14.62	14.5	0.0	14.50
Shawn Bradley	1	1	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	3	-2	18.0	14.6	3.40	5.0	14.6	-9.58
Adrian Griffin	26	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	15.4	14.4	1.02	12.4	15.1	-2.65
Raef LaFrentz	47	45	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.15	2	2	0	15.1	14.3	0.83	13.8	14.9	-1.19
Eduardo Najera	23	23	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.03	-5	9	-14	16.7	14.1	2.62	14.8	14.4	0.41
Raja Bell	31	29	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.13	-12	16	-28	15.2	14.4	0.81	12.4	15.2	-2.75
Michael Finley	83	80	-0.48	0.98	-1.45	-0.12	-12	16	-28	15.1	13.5	1.57	13.4	16.7	-3.23

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	51	50	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.03	11	-15	26	12.4	16.1	-3.75	14.7	14.5	0.20
Gerald Wallace	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-4	4	0.0	14.6	-14.62	0.0	14.6	-14.62
Vlade Divac	65	69	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-5	6	14.2	14.8	-0.58	15.7	13.2	2.45
Keon Clark	49	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	0	-4	15.5	13.8	1.76	14.0	15.1	-1.11
Mike Bibby	79	81	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	2	-8	13.7	16.0	-2.23	15.3	13.3	1.95
Doug Christie	107	107	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.52	5	-9	14	14.3	16.2	-1.95	14.5	15.5	-0.94
Peja Stojakovic	115	116	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.47	2	-6	8	14.5	15.7	-1.30	14.7	12.5	2.20
Jim Jackson	43	43	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	8	-20	16.9	13.1	3.78	14.0	15.0	-0.97
Bobby Jackson	85	86	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.38	-17	13	-30	15.3	12.4	2.96	13.8	16.6	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.68,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.86,0.78,0.55,0.74,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.22,0.73,0.54,0.38,0.46,0.69,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.55,0.46,0.55,0.84,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.23,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.28,0	88.1%
DEN 107, NOK 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.55,0.63,0	85.9%
TOR 111, UTA 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.66,0.53,0.64,0.84,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.16,0.24,0.42,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.24,0.05,0	85.7%