NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	92		Excitement	5.3 [743]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +15.8%
Boston Celtics	102		Comeback	8.6 [172]		LVP	Ron Mercer (IND): -8.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Erick Strickland	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	7	69%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	13	62%	0.08	5	-0.13	8	62%	-0.03
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	16	57%	0.01	3	-0.07	12	92%	0.05
Metta World Peace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	11	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	10	48%	-0.03	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	21	65%	0.23	3	-0.07	15	93%	0.05
Walter McCarty	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	8	65%	0.08	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Tony Delk	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.02	0.07	13	68%	0.04	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.00
Grant Long	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	0.03	-0.03	15	50%	0.07	5	-0.10	4	25%	-0.07
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Bremer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.4	29.4	17.8	32.3	3.4	40.4	153.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +38.1%

BOS +0.4%

BOS +8.3%

BOS +4.1%

IND -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	BOS	NBA	IND	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.5	95.8	109.7	101.6
season	15.4	15.6		102.2	99.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.1	18.4	21.2	11.4	15.5
BOS	15.2	17.6	13.0	14.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Foster	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	-6	2	13.2	15.6	-2.40	14.6	15.0	-0.41
Reggie Miller	37	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-9	8	14.4	16.1	-1.70	12.4	16.8	-4.43
Brad Miller	71	67	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.19	2	-12	14	16.5	12.7	3.78	16.0	12.3	3.78
Jamaal Tinsley	76	73	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.14	0	-10	10	15.6	15.0	0.61	15.0	14.8	0.24
Al Harrington	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	0	-10	15.2	15.7	-0.53	13.2	16.2	-2.96
Erick Strickland	20	20	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.07	-10	0	-10	15.0	15.6	-0.61	14.8	15.0	-0.24
Jermaine O'Neal	92	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-4	-2	15.7	10.2	5.46	15.0	15.0	-0.01
Ron Mercer	70	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	0	-10	15.1	16.6	-1.51	15.5	13.7	1.75
Metta World Peace	71	67	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.22	-11	1	-12	15.5	15.5	-0.00	16.0	12.5	3.46

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter McCarty	79	82	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-4	18	14.4	18.3	-3.88	15.9	12.9	3.07
Antoine Walker	91	94	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	0	10	15.0	16.0	-1.03	15.3	25.0	-9.72
Eric Williams	61	64	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	0	10	14.6	15.8	-1.21	14.7	17.1	-2.47
Paul Pierce	93	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	15.0	0.0	14.99	15.5	0.0	15.48
J.R. Bremer	24	27	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	4	2	16.3	14.5	1.81	14.3	15.9	-1.65
Tony Delk	69	69	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	6	-2	14.5	16.3	-1.81	15.9	14.3	1.65
Tony Battie	22	24	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	7	-4	15.4	14.9	0.55	18.2	14.6	3.64
Grant Long	2	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	10	-10	16.0	15.0	1.03	25.0	15.3	9.72
Mark Blount	24	22	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	17	-24	17.6	14.1	3.50	13.2	16.1	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.35,0.48,0.66,0.52,0.7,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 85, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.31,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1	93.5%
PHI 76, WAS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
CLE 94, BOS 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.64,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.96,1,1,1,1	93.1%