NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	88		Excitement	8.4 [196]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +14.0%
New Jersey Nets	85		Comeback	3.1 [237]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -31.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.14	0.08	0.08	0.01	13	78%	0.30	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.04
Toni Kukoc	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	8	55%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.03	20	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	16	45%	-0.02	1	-0.06	8	37%	-0.13
Anthony Mason	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.11	2	0%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	6	31%	-0.09	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Michael Redd	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	9	37%	-0.04	3	-0.12	1	100%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	16	56%	0.07	1	-0.09	7	86%	0.03
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.10	0.02	12	53%	-0.08	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.06
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	8	12%	-0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.19	-0.19	-0.05	-0.14	0.00	8	44%	-0.04	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.08,-0.31	-0.31	-0.10	-0.22	-0.00	14	55%	-0.07	7	-0.24	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	4.3	27.5	19.5	28.0	3.0	38.2	145.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +59.5%

NJN -22.7%

NJN -8.1%

MIL +15.3%

MIL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.9	15.5	95.7	91.4	101.6
season	15.4	15.0		106.3	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.8		96.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.6	13.8	15.2	16.6	15.3
NJN	14.4	17.0	16.8	15.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	46	46	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.55	8	-5	13	14.5	16.0	-1.50	16.1	15.6	0.53
Gary Payton	81	83	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.44	7	-4	11	14.6	20.0	-5.37	15.3	20.3	-4.97
Toni Kukoc	63	63	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	1	1	14.8	16.2	-1.42	16.1	15.3	0.78
Tim Thomas	66	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.55	-2	5	-7	15.4	14.9	0.49	15.4	17.2	-1.83
Sam Cassell	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	0	3	16.2	13.0	3.22	16.1	15.3	0.79
Joel Przybilla	26	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	3	-3	16.0	15.0	1.07	14.0	16.6	-2.64
Michael Redd	28	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.05	0	3	-3	15.8	15.0	0.79	17.2	15.3	1.92
Ervin Johnson	25	26	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.17	0	3	-3	16.7	14.7	1.93	17.9	15.1	2.86
Desmond Mason	60	60	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	6	-9	14.8	16.1	-1.26	15.7	16.1	-0.31

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Rogers	47	45	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-7	11	16.0	15.7	0.37	14.5	16.0	-1.53
Kerry Kittles	48	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-4	5	15.5	16.2	-0.70	14.5	16.1	-1.59
Jason Collins	40	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.27	5	-8	13	14.7	16.7	-2.04	16.2	14.5	1.62
Dikembe Mutombo	16	15	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	4	-11	18.2	15.4	2.89	14.1	15.5	-1.36
Aaron Williams	50	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-2	1	15.7	16.0	-0.35	15.4	15.2	0.22
Kenyon Martin	82	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	15.6	18.1	-2.53	15.4	14.5	0.93
Lucious Harris	50	48	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	1	-5	16.8	14.8	1.95	15.7	14.8	0.91
Jason Kidd	88	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	15.5	21.6	-6.07	15.3	15.0	0.28
Richard Jefferson	59	59	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.35	-9	6	-15	15.7	16.1	-0.36	15.5	14.9	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.56,0.41,0.51,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.66,0.75,0.46,0.22,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 114, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.23,0.15,0	91.6%
PHI 100, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.5,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.23,0.01,0	91.3%
PHI 110, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.73,0.61,0.46,0.15,0.05,0	91.2%