NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	99		Excitement	7.2 [382]		MVP	Samaki Walker (LAL): +8.9%
San Antonio Spurs	89		Comeback	1.6 [431]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -20.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samaki Walker	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.00	6	86%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.10	0.02	31	48%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Rick Fox	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Brian Shaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.02	8	72%	0.08	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	5	64%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Devean George	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	20	50%	-0.08	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	17	60%	0.14	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	53%	0.04	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	6	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	3	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.08	0.02	8	45%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	7	37%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	26	45%	-0.07	2	-0.14	10	90%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	3.5	31.5	20.2	28.7	3.7	36.2	152.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +46.3%

SAS -6.7%

LAL +14.8%

SAS -3.2%

SAS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.1	17.0	15.6	112.5	103.5	102.3
season	15.3	15.8		106.9	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		98.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	18.2	14.9	17.4	14.4	16.1
SAS	16.9	17.8	17.8	15.6	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	88	86	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	16.1	0.0	16.12	17.0	0.0	16.99
Devean George	41	38	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	0	10	14.3	17.7	-3.43	18.2	16.0	2.19
Derek Fisher	68	65	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	5	0	15.9	16.9	-1.07	16.4	18.8	-2.41
Samaki Walker	27	28	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.01	11	-1	12	15.7	16.3	-0.55	19.4	15.8	3.57
Shaquille O'Neal	72	71	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	4	2	16.5	14.4	2.06	17.1	16.5	0.55
Rick Fox	52	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	8	-6	16.6	15.4	1.25	15.7	19.0	-3.38
Brian Shaw	21	22	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	3	4	17.4	15.7	1.71	19.4	16.2	3.19
Robert Horry	69	67	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	10	-10	16.8	13.7	3.11	16.0	20.4	-4.34
Lindsey Hunter	2	1	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	11	-12	3.5	16.4	-12.92	16.0	17.0	-1.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cherokee Parks	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-12	14	6.0	17.1	-11.12	21.0	16.1	4.93
David Robinson	37	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-8	6	18.5	15.9	2.63	18.7	14.3	4.44
Antonio Daniels	26	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-10	10	18.0	16.5	1.51	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Danny Ferry	20	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-7	4	15.3	17.5	-2.13	13.0	17.2	-4.23
Terry Porter	21	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	-3	-4	18.0	16.7	1.34	17.0	15.9	1.09
Steven Smith	72	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	16.5	19.7	-3.26	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Tony Parker	66	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-5	0	16.5	18.5	-1.97	15.6	17.7	-2.10
Tim Duncan	80	82	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	0	-10	16.9	18.2	-1.27	16.3	14.2	2.10
Bruce Bowen	60	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.21	-9	-1	-8	17.5	15.7	1.86	16.7	14.8	1.87
Malik Rose	47	46	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	16.6	17.5	-0.87	15.0	17.4	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.21,0.38,0.53,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.24,0.16,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.01,0.04,0	93.1%
CHI 106, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.1,0.16,0.09,0,0	93.0%
PHX 91, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.04,0	92.6%