NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	85		Excitement	4.3 [948]		MVP	Rodney Rogers (BOS): +9.0%
Detroit Pistons	77		Comeback	1.0 [576]		LVP	Corliss Williamson (DET): -10.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.05	-0.03	12	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	9	82%	0.15	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.02	0.03	-0.06	19	52%	0.12	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.03	12	58%	0.05	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	13	37%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.04	-0.06	17	38%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	10	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	8	60%	0.02	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	22	47%	-0.05	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	0.01	-0.02	10	20%	-0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	509.3	3.4	30.4	19.8	23.1	2.5	28.2	616.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +37.5%

BOS +3.9%

BOS +13.6%

DET -9.9%

BOS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	16.7	15.6	95.5	90.6	102.3
season	15.0	15.7		100.9	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.7		99.8	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.7	14.4	16.6	20.6	16.4
DET	18.9	16.3	15.4	16.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	76	74	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-3	14	16.9	13.8	3.11	16.7	16.8	-0.16
Paul Pierce	74	71	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-3	14	17.2	12.8	4.36	16.6	16.9	-0.29
Rodney Rogers	48	45	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-4	16	15.2	17.8	-2.55	16.9	16.4	0.49
Antoine Walker	78	74	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.24	4	4	0	16.4	16.9	-0.55	16.8	16.2	0.57
Kenny Anderson	74	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	5	-2	16.9	14.3	2.60	16.2	18.8	-2.57
Tony Battie	56	54	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	7	-6	17.0	15.5	1.55	16.3	17.4	-1.06
Tony Delk	19	19	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	4	0	14.1	17.1	-2.95	18.7	16.1	2.65
Erick Strickland	11	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	10	-12	12.5	17.0	-4.43	16.3	16.7	-0.43
Walter McCarty	9	8	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	12	-16	15.9	16.5	-0.60	17.5	16.6	0.90

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	29	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-7	6	16.8	16.6	0.12	16.3	16.5	-0.19
Chucky Atkins	30	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	-2	-4	15.9	17.1	-1.26	19.1	14.9	4.12
Michael Curry	52	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-4	0	17.4	15.5	1.86	16.2	16.7	-0.50
Damon Jones	55	57	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-6	4	17.1	15.9	1.26	14.9	19.1	-4.12
Jerry Stackhouse	71	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.30	0	-8	8	16.4	18.0	-1.58	16.5	16.0	0.50
Ben Wallace	72	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-5	2	16.2	19.4	-3.19	16.3	17.2	-0.94
Corliss Williamson	36	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.01	-13	5	-18	17.1	16.4	0.70	16.1	16.7	-0.65
Clifford Robinson	80	83	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.22	-11	3	-14	16.7	16.8	-0.12	16.8	10.8	6.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.41,0.3,0.37,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 105, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.35,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
CLE 84, NJN 62	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
PHX 140, TOR 126	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.21,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%