NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	98		Excitement	6.6 [491]		MVP	Terry Porter (SAS): +8.9%
San Antonio Spurs	90		Comeback	3.4 [234]		LVP	Gary Payton (SEA): -20.0%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Randy Livingston	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	120%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.00	6	42%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02	-0.03	0.05	0.00	15	51%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.04
Desmond Mason	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	12	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jerome James	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	44%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	75%	0.05	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.18,-0.24,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2	-0.24	0.01	-0.03	24	37%	-0.06	5	-0.14	9	33%	-0.10

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	2	150%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	55%	0.01	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Mark Bryant	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	19	59%	0.09	4	-0.15	16	87%	0.05
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	11	46%	-0.05	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	8	42%	-0.07	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	560.0	3.5	30.3	19.5	25.3	2.6	-680.8	-39.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +32.7%

SAS -8.4%

SEA +32.0%

SAS -9.8%

SEA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAS	NBA	SEA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.4	15.1	15.6	110.1	102.3	102.3
season	16.0	15.8		106.3	104.3
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.5	17.9	20.3	15.4	17.4
SAS	14.8	14.9	15.7	15.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Livingston	44	43	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-3	14	15.9	18.8	-2.87	15.4	14.9	0.48
Desmond Mason	74	73	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.07	14	-6	20	17.0	19.4	-2.43	14.3	19.1	-4.80
Gary Payton	83	81	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	17.1	20.8	-3.70	15.3	13.0	2.33
Rashard Lewis	70	69	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.39	-2	10	-12	17.6	16.5	1.15	15.1	15.2	-0.08
Vladimir Radmanovic	43	42	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	0	8	16.4	18.3	-1.91	15.2	15.1	0.08
Jerome James	34	34	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.11	6	2	4	17.9	17.1	0.86	15.9	14.6	1.29
Brent Barry	51	52	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.12	-1	9	-10	19.0	15.2	3.88	14.7	15.9	-1.21
Vin Baker	46	46	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	10	-12	18.2	16.5	1.68	15.8	14.4	1.47

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Bryant	15	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-2	-4	17.7	14.6	3.12	13.6	18.1	-4.52
Tony Parker	61	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-12	16	15.0	15.5	-0.53	17.6	16.8	0.81
Steven Smith	69	69	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-13	18	14.5	17.6	-3.17	18.0	15.2	2.75
Danny Ferry	37	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-3	-2	16.3	14.3	1.94	16.1	18.4	-2.32
Antonio Daniels	36	37	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.20	-4	-4	0	17.4	13.6	3.75	16.9	17.7	-0.79
Malik Rose	44	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.10	-9	1	-10	13.2	17.1	-3.98	18.0	16.7	1.23
Terry Porter	27	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	4	-16	15.5	15.0	0.53	16.8	17.6	-0.81
Tim Duncan	85	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-7	6	14.9	22.3	-7.44	17.7	9.0	8.67
Bruce Bowen	66	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.06	-12	4	-16	15.1	15.3	-0.23	17.8	16.3	1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.19,0.16,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 120, MIL 114	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.11,0.05,0.04,0	93.3%
GSW 107, DAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.31,0.19,0.03,0,0,0	92.4%
LAC 117, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.0%