NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	120		Excitement	7.1 [418]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +25.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	114		Comeback	2.1 [285]		LVP	T.J. Ford (MIL): -10.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23	0.09	0.14	0.00	9	70%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Josh Smith	0.19	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19	0.12	0.08	0.01	19	61%	0.20	1	-0.01	8	75%	0.00
Anthony Grundy	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.09	0.00	4	70%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Donta Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	7	75%	0.18	2	-0.09	6	50%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	14	54%	0.07	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
John Edwards	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	12	57%	0.07	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	9	65%	0.08	5	-0.16	5	80%	-0.01
Esteban Batista	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.08	-0.01	13	80%	0.26	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.02	-0.02	24	60%	0.26	5	-0.18	12	83%	0.02
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	12	64%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	4	22%	-0.04	1	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	9	47%	0.04	4	-0.15	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.5	33.5	16.5	25.3	2.5	44.5	146.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +30.2%

ATL +0.8%

ATL +13.6%

ATL +7.7%

MIL -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	14.4	15.6	122.4	115.2	104.4
season	15.6	15.5		103.9	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.0	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.6	12.9	16.6	14.1	14.9
MIL	14.0	13.3	18.5	12.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	83	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.32	9	-3	12	14.6	16.3	-1.64	14.4	14.0	0.43
Tyronn Lue	51	52	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.34	8	-2	10	15.9	13.8	2.10	13.4	15.4	-1.94
Joe Johnson	79	80	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	1	4	14.1	18.2	-4.13	13.8	16.6	-2.81
Zaza Pachulia	64	65	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.38	-2	8	-10	15.7	13.3	2.38	15.0	13.1	1.85
Esteban Batista	21	21	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	-2	10	15.5	14.7	0.82	15.3	14.1	1.17
Donta Smith	53	55	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	-1	8	14.5	15.4	-0.88	13.8	15.1	-1.27
Josh Smith	82	82	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.42	-8	14	-22	15.2	13.0	2.24	14.6	13.3	1.29
Royal Ivey	24	23	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	4	-2	15.0	14.9	0.11	18.3	13.2	5.08
John Edwards	6	6	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	3	0	11.8	15.1	-3.24	11.8	14.5	-2.69
Anthony Grundy	27	27	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	8	-10	13.9	15.2	-1.31	13.0	14.9	-1.88

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	49	50	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-13	20	14.9	13.8	1.10	15.7	14.0	1.64
Toni Kukoc	25	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-7	8	12.6	15.0	-2.41	14.2	15.1	-0.91
Dan Gadzuric	15	15	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	0	-6	14.3	14.4	-0.04	13.7	15.1	-1.43
T.J. Ford	78	77	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-10	14	14.3	14.5	-0.20	14.9	14.8	0.09
Andrew Bogut	79	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-9	12	14.4	14.2	0.21	14.9	14.6	0.35
Mo Williams	21	21	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.00	-10	4	-14	14.5	14.3	0.20	14.8	14.9	-0.09
Michael Redd	84	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.21	-3	-3	0	14.4	14.1	0.27	15.1	13.9	1.19
Joe Smith	27	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	5	-16	15.5	13.9	1.54	15.2	14.7	0.48
Bobby Simmons	77	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	2	-10	14.8	13.0	1.81	15.2	13.9	1.32
Charlie Bell	40	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	1	-8	13.1	15.2	-2.08	13.4	15.9	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.56,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.11,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 105, LAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.18,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.07,0,0,0	93.7%
SEA 98, SAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.4,0.19,0.16,0.05,0.04,0	93.3%
PHI 105, NYK 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.17,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.19,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.2%