NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	104		Excitement	4.4 [911]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +11.1%
San Antonio Spurs	90		Comeback	1.6 [407]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -11.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	35	58%	0.16	4	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	68%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	22	54%	0.08	4	-0.06	8	75%	-0.00
Rick Fox	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	7	44%	0.01	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Horace Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	5	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	16	53%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	7	36%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	16	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	19	57%	-0.02	7	-0.10	11	73%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	3.5	30.2	22.7	28.3	3.5	37.5	150.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +32.8%

SAS -2.0%

LAL +12.4%

LAL +4.5%

LAL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	15.5	108.3	92.8	100.9
season	15.6	15.9		106.8	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.2		96.5	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.5	15.3	14.5	16.3	15.2
SAS	15.5	15.3	16.1	11.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	93	94	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.09	17	-3	20	15.2	13.3	1.91	14.7	14.7	-0.01
Derek Fisher	77	74	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.04	17	-3	20	15.1	15.5	-0.36	15.5	12.0	3.49
Shaquille O'Neal	90	90	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	4	6	15.1	16.5	-1.40	14.9	11.4	3.48
Rick Fox	79	81	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	2	10	14.7	17.4	-2.70	14.3	16.6	-2.28
Horace Grant	40	42	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.06	16	-2	18	14.3	15.8	-1.48	16.1	13.6	2.53
Robert Horry	56	57	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	14	-14	16.0	14.0	1.99	13.4	16.5	-3.09
Mark Madsen	5	5	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	12	-10	15.6	15.2	0.44	12.6	14.8	-2.17
Brian Shaw	36	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	18	-22	16.1	14.7	1.39	14.3	14.9	-0.63
Tyronn Lue	4	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	14	-14	15.2	15.2	0.07	12.3	14.8	-2.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	5	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-15	16	18.0	14.5	3.52	19.3	14.9	4.42
David Robinson	58	58	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-11	8	15.7	13.1	2.56	15.6	14.6	0.96
Avery Johnson	48	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.15	-3	-11	8	15.1	14.2	0.88	16.0	14.5	1.48
Antonio Daniels	80	82	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-11	8	14.4	15.8	-1.34	15.5	13.5	1.98
Malik Rose	40	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-12	10	13.6	15.4	-1.72	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Terry Porter	49	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	-3	-8	14.2	15.1	-0.88	14.5	16.0	-1.48
Danny Ferry	63	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-3	-8	14.7	14.5	0.20	14.0	17.1	-3.08
Sean Elliott	49	49	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.14	-19	5	-24	14.1	15.3	-1.21	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Tim Duncan	93	92	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.09	-19	5	-24	14.7	12.7	1.99	15.3	12.2	3.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 112, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
UTA 102, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
MIA 100, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%