NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	4.3 [964]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +15.9%
Atlanta Hawks	88		Comeback	1.5 [346]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -13.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.16	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.03	0.01	14	75%	0.17	2	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.02	0.03	12	67%	0.09	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	69%	0.10	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	75%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	14	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	11	33%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Justise Winslow	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.16	-0.02	-0.05	16	21%	-0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.17	-0.00	0.09	18	72%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	-0.04	12	54%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	10	54%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Lamar Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	12	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	12	27%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.05	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	12	21%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	26.7	14.8	26.5	2.4	30.2	129.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.1%

ATL -1.3%

MIA +22.8%

ATL -1.8%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.9	12.9	14.9	104.2	90.7	105.1
season	15.5	14.2		104.5	104.1
opponent	15.1	15.1		100.3	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	16.6	15.4	18.8	16.9
ATL	12.4	12.8	14.6	12.0	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	70	73	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.00	18	-6	24	16.8	17.2	-0.33	12.4	14.5	-2.12
Luol Deng	71	72	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	3	6	16.8	17.1	-0.27	13.2	12.3	0.85
Chris Bosh	74	75	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	4	4	16.6	18.1	-1.58	12.8	13.4	-0.54
Dwyane Wade	58	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	6	0	17.9	15.4	2.43	12.9	12.9	-0.00
Hassan Whiteside	52	53	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	1	10	16.8	17.0	-0.15	13.1	12.8	0.32
Gerald Green	62	63	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	7	-2	16.8	17.1	-0.22	12.6	13.6	-0.94
Udonis Haslem	29	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	11	-10	18.0	16.5	1.50	13.7	12.6	1.08
Justise Winslow	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	8	-4	15.6	17.4	-1.79	12.5	13.1	-0.61
Beno Udrih	37	37	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.10	-2	14	-16	16.8	17.0	-0.22	13.9	12.4	1.53

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Patterson	15	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-11	10	14.1	12.7	1.32	18.3	16.7	1.68
Mike Muscala	21	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-11	10	11.7	13.3	-1.58	17.9	16.6	1.26
Dennis Schroder	55	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-12	12	12.4	13.6	-1.22	16.3	17.7	-1.41
Tiago Splitter	24	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-8	4	14.3	12.5	1.84	15.9	17.3	-1.35
Thabo Sefolosha	20	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-5	-2	11.2	13.4	-2.20	16.6	17.0	-0.40
Al Horford	73	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-8	4	12.8	13.4	-0.57	17.4	15.6	1.83
Jeff Teague	56	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	0	-12	13.7	11.9	1.77	16.7	17.2	-0.49
Kyle Korver	64	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	-8	4	13.1	12.7	0.38	17.9	14.8	3.16
Kent Bazemore	82	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	0	-12	12.8	13.9	-1.09	16.6	18.6	-2.05
Paul Millsap	75	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.07	-15	3	-18	13.1	12.3	0.82	16.4	18.7	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 109, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
HOU 117, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
BOS 90, ORL 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0	95.3%