NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	117		Excitement	4.1 [995]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +22.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	103		Comeback	1.3 [545]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): -9.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.03	-0.00	14	83%	0.29	5	-0.06	13	92%	0.04
Jason Terry	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.02	15	60%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.03	0.04	13	69%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Tarik Black	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	0.00	0.08	6	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.10	0.00	-0.07	7	14%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.00	0.01	18	39%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	14	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.04	5	79%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.01	0.04	8	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	12	63%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Larry Sanders	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	0.00	0.06	3	79%	0.05	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Jabari Parker	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	7	68%	0.09	4	-0.09	14	93%	0.05
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	4	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	8	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.01	-0.07	3	0%	-0.03	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	10	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.4	27.6	17.3	32.3	2.7	31.3	137.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +45.5%

MIL -11.3%

HOU +15.6%

MIL -1.7%

HOU +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIL	NBA	HOU	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.7	15.1	127.2	113.2	104.2
season	14.3	14.5		105.6	100.5
opponent	15.7	14.9		101.0	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.4	18.8	15.8	18.2	16.7
MIL	15.0	14.6	15.5	13.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	77	77	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-4	22	16.7	17.1	-0.40	14.8	14.6	0.11
Jason Terry	66	69	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.14	21	-7	28	16.7	16.9	-0.22	14.5	15.5	-1.01
James Harden	74	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	0	14	15.9	20.2	-4.27	14.9	14.1	0.83
Donatas Motiejunas	61	60	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	-2	18	16.7	16.8	-0.07	14.2	15.7	-1.53
Tarik Black	38	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	6	2	17.3	16.3	1.00	14.5	14.9	-0.38
Kostas Papanikolaou	55	53	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	9	-4	16.5	17.1	-0.54	15.5	13.7	1.76
Joey Dorsey	25	24	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	13	-12	15.2	17.3	-2.15	15.1	14.6	0.47
Francisco Garcia	35	33	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	18	-22	19.0	15.4	3.62	14.3	15.0	-0.63
Nick Johnson	26	22	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.23	-7	21	-28	16.9	16.7	0.22	15.5	14.5	1.01
Troy Daniels	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	23.0	16.5	6.48	12.3	14.8	-2.48

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	26	26	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-15	16	15.3	14.5	0.80	17.0	16.6	0.38
Kendall Marshall	36	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-16	18	15.1	14.5	0.62	16.3	17.0	-0.72
Jerryd Bayless	39	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-11	8	15.4	14.2	1.18	16.5	16.9	-0.43
Larry Sanders	44	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-10	6	14.7	14.8	-0.15	16.9	16.5	0.43
Giannis Antetokounmpo	65	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-8	2	14.4	15.6	-1.18	17.7	14.3	3.43
Ersan Ilyasova	47	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-4	-6	14.8	14.7	0.15	16.5	16.9	-0.43
Khris Middleton	39	40	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.05	-9	-5	-4	15.2	14.4	0.73	15.7	17.5	-1.82
O.J. Mayo	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-1	-12	14.4	15.0	-0.60	16.6	16.8	-0.16
Brandon Knight	55	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	2	-18	14.5	15.1	-0.62	17.0	16.3	0.72
Jabari Parker	61	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	-2	-10	14.4	15.5	-1.09	16.5	17.3	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 105, MEM 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
MIA 94, NYK 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
DAL 102, MEM 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.25,0.34,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%