NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	3.8 [1023]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +13.9%
New York Knicks	88		Comeback	1.1 [874]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (NYK): -17.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.02	-0.03	17	64%	0.14	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	64%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	15	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	10	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	117%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	15	52%	-0.02	0	0.00	12	83%	0.02
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	13	65%	0.06	5	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.03	8	69%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	8	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Larry Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	10	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	14	20%	-0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.6	28.2	16.6	29.1	1.8	34.1	139.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +51.5%

NYK -2.6%

NYK -5.7%

MIA +8.0%

NYK -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.0	17.2	15.2	103.3	100.0	101.7
season	15.7	16.1		101.2	100.0
opponent	15.8	15.9		98.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	13.9	15.7	16.5	15.0
NYK	16.2	18.8	17.9	16.3	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	77	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.20	13	-7	20	15.0	15.0	-0.04	17.5	16.0	1.47
Dan Majerle	80	77	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.33	8	-2	10	14.8	16.4	-1.59	16.6	21.9	-5.32
P.J. Brown	71	68	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	2	2	14.9	15.3	-0.49	16.3	20.3	-4.01
Tim Hardaway	74	73	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	6	-6	14.7	16.2	-1.56	16.6	20.5	-3.96
Jamal Mashburn	73	70	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	3	0	15.2	14.2	1.00	17.3	16.9	0.38
Voshon Lenard	29	29	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	5	-4	15.0	15.0	0.05	18.8	16.5	2.35
Rex Walters	18	16	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	1	4	15.3	14.9	0.46	19.4	16.8	2.67
Clar. Weatherspoon	33	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	10	-14	15.7	14.6	1.10	19.1	16.2	2.95

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wallace	25	24	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.12	6	-12	18	17.4	17.2	0.15	17.7	14.0	3.72
Rick Brunson	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-10	14	7.0	17.5	-10.49	2.0	15.3	-13.26
Chris Dudley	20	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.05	-7	1	-8	19.2	16.7	2.52	11.4	16.0	-4.51
Kurt Thomas	51	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-11	16	16.4	18.5	-2.09	16.4	12.9	3.54
Chris Childs	55	58	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-8	10	17.2	17.3	-0.08	15.2	14.6	0.52
Charlie Ward	40	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	0	-6	16.5	17.9	-1.33	14.8	15.1	-0.34
Marcus Camby	52	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-4	2	17.3	17.1	0.19	16.4	12.9	3.54
Larry Johnson	51	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	6	-18	17.8	16.5	1.27	13.0	17.9	-4.88
Latrell Sprewell	68	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	3	-12	18.2	13.9	4.27	15.2	14.1	1.12
Allan Houston	76	80	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	5	-16	16.7	20.8	-4.15	14.5	18.6	-4.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 117, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
IND 98, TOR 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
LAL 119, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%