NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	3.8 [1012]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +17.2%
Memphis Grizzlies	87		Comeback	1.1 [996]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -12.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.01	0.01	16	82%	0.23	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	3	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	10	60%	0.03	2	-0.02	10	100%	0.03
Steven Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	13	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Speedy Claxton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	7	44%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	55%	-0.00	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	6	21%	-0.08	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	11	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Batiste	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Archibald	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	19	53%	0.01	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	47%	-0.03	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	6	42%	0.00	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	9	23%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	1.8	28.0	14.8	26.3	2.4	29.6	128.7
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +29.5%

SAS +13.7%

SAS +14.4%

MEM -8.9%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	15.6	15.1	15.5	111.7	92.6	101.6
season	15.7	15.3		102.5	101.8
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.2	16.8	14.0	17.5	15.6
MEM	14.6	15.3	16.0	14.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	69	68	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.09	21	-3	24	15.1	16.8	-1.62	15.3	14.5	0.83
Tony Parker	57	58	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.02	14	4	10	14.8	16.7	-1.86	16.2	13.2	2.94
Stephen Jackson	47	48	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.03	13	5	8	14.4	16.7	-2.34	16.2	13.9	2.30
Bruce Bowen	47	46	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.02	15	3	12	14.5	16.6	-2.13	17.0	13.2	3.88
David Robinson	36	38	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	4	10	15.0	15.9	-0.93	16.4	14.1	2.32
Steven Smith	38	37	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.09	9	9	0	16.7	14.8	1.91	13.9	15.8	-1.98
Speedy Claxton	37	36	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.05	4	14	-10	16.7	14.8	1.86	13.2	16.2	-2.94
Malik Rose	50	50	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	18	-18	16.6	14.4	2.15	13.5	16.9	-3.38
Kevin Willis	24	24	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.07	-1	19	-20	15.7	15.5	0.18	16.0	14.8	1.20
Danny Ferry	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	16	-14	15.2	15.6	-0.39	13.7	15.2	-1.44
Steve Kerr	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	20	-22	15.7	15.5	0.20	13.5	15.3	-1.72
Manu Ginobili	44	46	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	17	-16	16.9	14.4	2.55	13.2	16.8	-3.57

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Humphrey	12	12	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-20	22	12.5	15.4	-2.94	15.1	15.6	-0.56
Robert Archibald	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	15.8	15.0	0.78	13.2	15.7	-2.51
Mike Miller	37	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-14	10	15.8	14.6	1.19	15.6	15.6	-0.03
Earl Watson	38	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-13	8	13.7	16.0	-2.27	16.0	15.3	0.68
Brevin Knight	31	32	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-13	8	14.0	15.6	-1.59	15.9	15.4	0.55
Mike Batiste	49	49	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.13	-3	-15	12	14.3	15.9	-1.58	16.0	15.1	0.93
Pau Gasol	57	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.15	-17	-1	-16	14.9	15.4	-0.47	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Shane Battier	56	56	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	-8	-2	14.3	16.1	-1.79	16.4	14.3	2.07
Jason Williams	63	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-5	-8	15.6	14.0	1.59	15.4	15.9	-0.55
Wesley Person	56	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.01	-13	-5	-8	16.0	13.7	2.27	15.3	16.0	-0.68
Lorenzen Wright	66	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.12	-22	4	-26	16.4	11.9	4.52	15.0	17.1	-2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 117, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
LAL 102, DEN 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
SEA 103, MIN 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.16,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%