NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	85		Excitement	9.6 [79]		MVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): +8.4%
Orlando Magic	83		Comeback	5.0 [180]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -46.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,0.08	-0.05	0.11	-0.02	17	49%	0.18	2	-0.09	9	78%	-0.03
Ray Allen	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	9	60%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Rafer Alston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	4	59%	-0.04	2	-0.03	9	67%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.1	-0.18	0.05	-0.04	16	31%	0.02	4	-0.11	3	33%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.01	6	57%	-0.03	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.46	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.35,-0.46,-0.46	-0.18	-0.32	-0.04	20	41%	-0.01	6	-0.46	6	83%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	14	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Doleac	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	73%	0.11	3	-0.15	3	67%	-0.02
John Amaechi	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	30%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	13	38%	-0.11	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.27	-0.27	-0.14	-0.16	-0.04	17	39%	0.04	5	-0.30	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.2,-0.31,-0.45	-0.45	-0.11	-0.35	-0.01	22	39%	-0.38	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	30.3	16.4	33.4	2.5	30.8	140.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +66.5%

MIL +3.1%

MIL +3.5%

ORL -24.1%

MIL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	15.2	86.7	84.7	101.7
season	14.9	13.6		105.5	100.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		99.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.2	14.1	14.6	16.2	14.7
ORL	14.0	12.5	16.0	16.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	77	79	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.21	18	-16	34	14.5	15.5	-0.96	14.7	14.4	0.30
Ervin Johnson	66	66	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.29	13	-11	24	14.8	14.6	0.24	14.9	14.2	0.71
Sam Cassell	91	91	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-2	6	14.7	14.4	0.32	14.4	17.9	-3.44
Glenn Robinson	88	86	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	0	2	14.7	15.0	-0.31	14.3	17.2	-2.85
Tim Thomas	64	64	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.58	-11	13	-24	14.7	14.9	-0.20	15.3	13.5	1.74
Ray Allen	63	66	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.05	3	-1	4	15.0	14.1	0.90	14.7	14.6	0.10
Rafer Alston	24	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.22	-9	11	-20	14.4	14.8	-0.41	14.3	14.8	-0.48
Scott Williams	17	17	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.17	-10	12	-22	14.9	14.7	0.19	14.6	14.7	-0.02

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	71	70	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-4	6	14.4	15.3	-0.92	14.5	15.2	-0.74
Ben Wallace	58	58	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-2	2	12.9	17.2	-4.24	14.1	15.7	-1.61
Corey Maggette	20	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-1	0	13.7	14.9	-1.15	13.4	15.1	-1.65
Chucky Atkins	63	63	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.60	15	-17	32	15.2	13.8	1.39	14.9	14.4	0.46
Pat Garrity	59	59	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.60	13	-15	28	14.6	14.7	-0.05	14.9	14.5	0.44
Michael Doleac	4	4	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-1	0	26.2	14.2	12.08	16.7	14.6	2.11
Bo Outlaw	60	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	5	-12	15.2	13.8	1.34	15.6	13.6	2.00
John Amaechi	42	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.16	-18	16	-34	14.8	14.5	0.30	14.5	14.9	-0.34
Monty Williams	38	39	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	1	-4	16.5	13.5	3.00	15.2	14.4	0.71
Darrell Armstrong	75	76	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.38	-10	8	-18	14.0	16.7	-2.71	14.7	15.0	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.24,0.22,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.24,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.67,0.83,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 94, TOR 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.17,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.28,0.31,0.45,0.78,0.91,0	90.4%
CLE 93, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.59,0.58,0	90.2%
DEN 112, MIL 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.13,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.39,0.61,0.37,0.55,0.69,0	89.5%