NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	11.8 [21]		MVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): +79.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	111		Comeback	2.9 [490]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (MIL): -34.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.29	0.06	0.23	-0.00	9	65%	0.32	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.21	0.06	0.17	0.03	13	67%	0.45	5	-0.24	13	85%	0.05
Wilson Chandler	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.06	0.02	13	75%	0.24	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	12	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	100%	0.11
Corey Brewer	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03
Anthony Randolph	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
JaVale McGee	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	8	48%	-0.00	2	-0.09	5	40%	-0.06
Kosta Koufos	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.08	6	33%	-0.20

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.8	0.80	0.18	0.62	0.00	25	69%	0.94	4	-0.15	5	80%	0.06
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	5	71%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.13,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.29,-0.03	-0.03	0.13	-0.16	0.00	14	67%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	8%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.15,0,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.13	0.01	13	54%	0.17	3	-0.33	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.01	11	17%	-0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.35	-0.35	-0.05	-0.29	0.01	11	42%	-0.23	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	27.3	15.7	27.1	1.6	39.0	140.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.4%

DEN +3.9%

DEN +4.4%

MIL -0.8%

DEN +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	12.8	14.8	15.4	106.7	106.7	104.1
season	14.4	14.7		108.4	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		103.9	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.7	15.9	10.9	12.0	12.8
MIL	15.0	14.1	15.4	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	51	50	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-15	31	11.7	13.8	-2.03	15.8	13.9	1.93
Wilson Chandler	60	63	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.37	16	-15	31	12.4	13.2	-0.83	15.9	13.2	2.69
Andre Miller	50	50	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.90	-7	8	-15	13.4	12.2	1.28	14.2	15.4	-1.23
Andre Iguodala	80	78	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-5	11	11.7	16.0	-4.29	14.9	14.6	0.29
Ty Lawson	87	85	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	0	1	12.3	15.1	-2.76	14.5	16.0	-1.47
Anthony Randolph	38	36	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	10	-19	13.3	12.5	0.77	12.9	15.8	-2.88
Evan Fournier	57	57	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.33	6	-5	11	13.8	11.5	2.27	16.4	12.9	3.44
Corey Brewer	49	48	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.15	-11	12	-23	13.3	12.3	0.96	13.9	15.6	-1.71
JaVale McGee	53	53	-0.44	0.94	-1.39	-0.06	-13	14	-27	13.9	11.6	2.33	14.0	15.7	-1.70

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Henson	67	69	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.24	0	-1	1	15.1	14.3	0.82	12.1	14.1	-2.04
Ekpe Udoh	43	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-4	7	14.0	15.4	-1.44	12.6	12.9	-0.31
JJ Redick	61	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.50	10	-11	21	13.9	16.0	-2.13	12.7	12.8	-0.12
Luc Mbah a Moute	38	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	6	-13	16.1	14.1	2.02	13.5	12.4	1.16
Monta Ellis	78	80	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-1	1	15.1	14.0	1.01	12.4	14.0	-1.61
Mike Dunleavy	64	66	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.50	7	-8	15	14.1	15.9	-1.75	11.9	14.2	-2.32
Ersan Ilyasova	69	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	5	-11	15.2	14.0	1.20	12.9	12.5	0.37
Ish Smith	40	40	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.70	4	-5	9	14.1	15.2	-1.09	15.4	11.2	4.25
Brandon Jennings	60	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.14	-16	15	-31	15.5	13.8	1.74	12.9	12.6	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.13,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.39,0.61,0.37,0.55,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, MIL 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.17,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.45,0.29,0.43,0.58,0	90.9%
LAL 104, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.47,0.58,0	90.8%
CLE 93, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.59,0.58,0	90.5%