NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	92		Excitement	7.9 [265]		MVP	Mark Jackson (IND): +71.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	3.1 [297]		LVP	Jalen Rose (IND): -35.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Jackson	0.72	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0.23,0.72	0.01	0.69	-0.01	11	50%	0.76	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	10	77%	0.18	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.03
Travis Best	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	3	60%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Dale Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	59%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Austin Croshere	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	64%	0.07	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Sam Perkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.35	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.19,-0.35	-0.06	-0.28	0.01	14	57%	-0.19	5	-0.16	7	71%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.26,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.15	-0.01	15	61%	0.23	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	13	56%	0.06	0	0.00	6	100%	0.08
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	-0.01	24	42%	0.08	4	-0.19	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	29.4	15.6	23.1	1.4	34.5	129.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +76.9%

MIL -12.5%

MIL -1.1%

MIL -14.3%

IND +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	17.1	15.5	15.2	103.4	102.3	101.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.5	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		105.1	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.7	15.1	18.2	19.5	17.1
MIL	13.7	16.9	16.9	14.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	73	72	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.35	9	-7	16	16.8	18.4	-1.68	15.7	14.5	1.19
Mark Jackson	63	62	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	-4	10	16.3	18.8	-2.47	15.8	14.7	1.06
Dale Davis	82	81	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-3	8	17.0	17.9	-0.87	15.3	18.0	-2.74
Jalen Rose	73	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	-2	6	16.9	17.9	-1.07	15.7	14.5	1.19
Austin Croshere	59	59	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	-7	16	16.5	18.2	-1.73	15.8	14.8	0.97
Derrick McKey	42	42	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.47	-11	13	-24	18.0	16.2	1.88	14.4	16.5	-2.14
Travis Best	26	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	6	-10	18.8	16.3	2.47	14.7	15.8	-1.06
Sam Perkins	27	26	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.16	-8	10	-18	18.3	16.5	1.83	16.0	15.2	0.80

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	37	38	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.10	6	-8	14	14.4	16.3	-1.94	17.8	16.5	1.23
Vinny Del Negro	38	37	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-8	14	14.4	16.3	-1.95	16.8	17.3	-0.51
Rafer Alston	9	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-1	0	19.2	15.1	4.17	11.9	17.6	-5.75
Scott Williams	68	68	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	3	-8	15.7	14.7	0.94	16.6	18.5	-1.86
Danny Manning	50	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.43	6	-8	14	15.6	15.3	0.28	17.4	16.6	0.83
Ervin Johnson	38	38	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	7	-16	15.4	15.6	-0.19	17.4	16.8	0.64
Sam Cassell	73	74	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.6	14.7	0.98	16.9	17.6	-0.65
Ray Allen	56	58	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.36	-6	4	-10	15.4	15.6	-0.18	17.9	15.5	2.41
Glenn Robinson	71	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	3	-8	15.8	14.0	1.83	16.9	17.8	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.17,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.45,0.29,0.43,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 94, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.3,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.48,0.37,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.45,0.57,0.58,0	92.1%
UTA 96, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.25,0.55,0.35,0.58,0	91.9%
LAL 113, LAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.21,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.45,0.46,0.32,0.28,0	91.5%