NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	80		Excitement	3.1 [1132]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +7.8%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.2 [1252]		LVP	Dickey Simpkins (CHI): -8.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Benjamin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	9	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Chris Anstey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Will Perdue	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0	0%	0.00	3	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	16	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Hersey Hawkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	73%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Matt Maloney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	70%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Hoiberg	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.03	7	60%	-0.04	1	-0.00	11	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01	4	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Dickey Simpkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.00	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	10	67%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.01	-0.06	6	62%	0.05	3	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	9	57%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	73%	0.04	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	10	68%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	40%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.07	5	82%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Harold Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	3	37%	0.00	3	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	6	56%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.8	28.2	15.4	28.6	2.0	35.0	135.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +19.4%

MIA +4.8%

MIA +2.3%

MIA +17.1%

MIA +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	14.3	15.2	87.0	115.4	101.7
season	16.5	15.7		91.8	101.2
opponent	15.9	14.9		98.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.1	19.0	15.8	17.0	17.2
MIA	13.6	13.7	17.7	12.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Perdue	17	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.20	-7	-18	11	16.5	17.4	-0.83	11.5	14.8	-3.34
Corey Benjamin	35	35	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.22	-9	-16	7	18.5	16.4	2.02	11.6	15.9	-4.26
Michael Ruffin	22	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.20	-9	-16	7	15.5	17.7	-2.24	12.0	15.0	-3.00
Chris Anstey	38	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-18	11	18.1	16.6	1.44	14.4	14.2	0.19
Fred Hoiberg	54	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.16	-12	-13	1	17.3	17.1	0.17	14.0	14.5	-0.49
Matt Maloney	39	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.24	-15	-10	-5	17.8	16.7	1.11	12.8	15.3	-2.51
Randy Brown	53	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-15	5	16.7	17.8	-1.11	15.3	12.8	2.51
Dickey Simpkins	40	39	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-15	5	16.5	17.7	-1.16	14.8	13.8	1.04
Metta World Peace	45	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.04	-13	-12	-1	16.3	18.1	-1.84	15.0	13.5	1.55
Hersey Hawkins	50	49	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.04	-16	-9	-7	17.1	17.3	-0.23	15.6	12.6	2.99
Elton Brand	67	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.04	-17	-8	-9	17.9	15.5	2.37	15.3	11.7	3.68

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	51	52	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	10	5	15.2	13.1	2.06	16.8	17.8	-1.01
Tim Hardaway	45	47	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.07	15	10	5	15.8	12.7	3.15	17.4	17.0	0.49
Alonzo Mourning	33	34	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	9	7	15.4	13.6	1.74	18.0	16.8	1.21
P.J. Brown	28	32	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	13	-1	15.2	13.8	1.39	17.9	16.8	1.07
Rodney Buford	44	45	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.25	16	9	7	12.8	15.6	-2.82	18.3	16.2	2.12
Clar. Weatherspoon	54	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	15	-5	15.1	13.1	2.02	17.1	17.4	-0.30
Dan Majerle	45	45	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	20	-15	16.3	12.2	4.07	16.0	18.4	-2.36
Bruce Bowen	42	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.22	14	11	3	12.5	15.8	-3.30	17.9	16.6	1.24
Otis Thorpe	41	41	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	19	-13	13.8	14.6	-0.77	17.2	17.2	-0.06
Anthony Carter	46	45	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.17	10	15	-5	12.7	15.8	-3.15	17.0	17.4	-0.49
Harold Jamison	13	13	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	23	-21	10.8	14.8	-4.06	15.5	17.5	-2.03
Mark Strickland	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	21	-17	10.8	14.8	-4.06	15.7	17.4	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	96.8%
PHI 77, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
SAS 97, PHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%