NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	87		Excitement	3.7 [1096]		MVP	Maurice Harkless (POR): +7.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	100		Comeback	1.2 [1220]		LVP	Dwight Buycks (DET): -11.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.00	0.05	9	69%	0.06	1	-0.01	8	75%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	64%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.05	10	65%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	12	46%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Ennis III	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.00	0.03	11	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	17	41%	-0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Dwight Buycks	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.00	0.03	3	90%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	19	51%	0.04	1	0.00	9	100%	0.03
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	8	56%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	16	50%	0.05	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	6	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	29.0	14.8	26.2	2.4	25.3	122.7
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +26.7%

POR +5.8%

POR +9.7%

POR +5.4%

POR +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	POR	NBA	DET	POR	NBA
this game	14.3	16.8	14.7	94.6	107.5	107.5
season	14.9	15.2		106.4	107.8
opponent	14.3	14.7		105.7	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.4	13.8	14.4	14.7	14.3
POR	16.9	15.5	16.9	18.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kennard	57	57	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.28	7	-20	27	13.8	15.2	-1.47	16.5	17.3	-0.86
James Ennis III	36	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-5	-3	14.7	14.1	0.62	17.5	16.4	1.09
Ish Smith	54	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-7	1	14.7	13.8	0.94	17.2	16.2	1.04
Anthony Tolliver	43	43	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-11	9	14.0	14.6	-0.68	16.8	16.8	0.01
Dwight Buycks	38	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-6	-1	13.8	14.7	-0.94	16.2	17.2	-1.04
Stanley Johnson	33	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	13.7	14.7	-1.01	16.6	16.9	-0.39
Blake Griffin	68	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	14.6	13.4	1.22	17.2	15.7	1.54
Reggie Bullock	58	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	3	-19	15.0	13.1	1.85	16.9	16.7	0.16
Andre Drummond	73	74	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	2	-17	14.2	14.6	-0.40	16.4	18.3	-1.83

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	73	71	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.09	23	-10	33	16.4	18.2	-1.78	14.6	13.3	1.27
Al-Farouq Aminu	60	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	-4	21	16.6	17.1	-0.44	15.2	12.9	2.27
Maurice Harkless	53	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	-3	19	16.5	17.2	-0.65	14.9	13.6	1.32
Pat Connaughton	24	23	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.09	13	0	13	15.7	17.2	-1.48	13.2	14.7	-1.52
Jusuf Nurkic	46	45	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	3	7	16.4	17.2	-0.78	14.2	14.4	-0.23
CJ McCollum	70	70	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.21	0	13	-13	17.3	15.3	1.94	14.5	13.8	0.71
Meyers Leonard	9	8	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	7	-1	18.7	16.6	2.06	18.0	14.0	4.04
Evan Turner	39	40	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.20	-3	16	-19	17.0	16.7	0.33	13.9	14.6	-0.69
Ed Davis	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	16	-19	16.8	16.8	0.06	13.7	14.8	-1.08
Zach Collins	33	34	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	17	-21	17.1	16.6	0.44	12.9	15.2	-2.27
Shabazz Napier	20	21	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.21	-10	23	-33	18.2	16.4	1.78	13.3	14.6	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.86,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 80, MIA 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
PHI 77, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
HOU 76, MIL 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%