NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	103		Excitement	7.4 [348]		MVP	Nick Anderson (SAC): +27.5%
Sacramento Kings	113		Comeback	1.4 [851]		LVP	Tony Delk (SAC): -23.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	10	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
John Crotty	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mikki Moore	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Grant Hill	0.01	0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	28	56%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.04
Loy Vaught	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	20	52%	0.09	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Eric Montross	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	9	43%	-0.05	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Michael Curry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.16	0.11	-0.00	21	67%	0.30	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.00	3	80%	0.12	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.04	-0.07	18	63%	0.26	8	-0.22	10	70%	0.01
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	69%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.05
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	60%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	9	54%	-0.04	3	-0.08	10	90%	0.04
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.17	-0.06	-0.00	7	11%	-0.16	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.8	30.0	15.4	29.5	2.5	33.6	139.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +45.2%

SAC +2.0%

SAC +9.7%

DET -10.0%

SAC +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAC	NBA	DET	SAC	NBA
this game	13.7	15.1	15.2	104.0	111.9	101.7
season	14.1	13.8		104.2	102.9
opponent	14.7	15.3		100.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.2	13.0	13.7	15.2	13.7
SAC	13.5	14.1	15.7	17.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mikki Moore	32	33	0.24	-0.74	0.99	-0.05	10	-20	30	15.0	13.1	1.85	14.9	15.2	-0.28
John Crotty	31	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-10	10	15.4	13.0	2.43	15.5	14.9	0.60
Michael Curry	39	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-10	10	14.9	12.9	2.03	15.4	14.8	0.58
Eric Montross	11	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-4	-2	12.8	13.8	-1.01	11.6	15.5	-3.96
Terry Mills	29	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	13.6	13.8	-0.19	15.4	14.9	0.48
Jerome Williams	57	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-5	0	13.9	13.5	0.42	13.9	16.6	-2.71
Lindsey Hunter	68	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.14	-10	0	-10	13.0	15.4	-2.43	14.9	15.5	-0.60
Grant Hill	85	85	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	14.2	10.6	3.66	15.2	14.2	0.97
Jerry Stackhouse	82	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	1	-12	12.8	17.9	-5.10	15.2	14.5	0.69
Christian Laettner	61	63	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.12	-13	3	-16	12.8	15.2	-2.42	16.1	13.3	2.85

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Anderson	90	85	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-5	20	14.8	17.5	-2.78	13.5	15.1	-1.58
Chris Webber	96	95	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.19	12	-2	14	14.8	20.0	-5.19	13.8	12.7	1.01
Jason Williams	76	74	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-1	12	14.4	17.2	-2.88	12.8	16.4	-3.54
Scot Pollard	34	31	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.07	9	1	8	14.5	15.4	-0.86	13.2	13.9	-0.72
Tyrone Corbin	40	41	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.23	-1	11	-12	16.9	13.9	3.03	13.0	14.2	-1.22
Darrick Martin	19	19	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	9	-8	17.3	14.6	2.70	16.9	13.0	3.93
Lawrence Funderburke	58	57	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.16	-1	11	-12	15.8	14.1	1.70	13.9	13.5	0.38
Tony Delk	51	51	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	10	-10	15.3	14.9	0.37	14.7	12.6	2.12
Corliss Williamson	27	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	6	-2	13.5	15.6	-2.17	13.8	13.7	0.08
Vlade Divac	14	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	10	-10	15.2	15.0	0.17	13.9	13.7	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.95,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.89,0.95,0.84,1	94.3%
NOK 93, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.96,0.87,0.86,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.2%
CHA 86, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	94.2%