NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	100		Excitement	3.8 [1033]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): +11.1%
Denver Nuggets	86		Comeback	1.2 [399]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -20.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.04	-0.03	13	63%	0.14	2	-0.03	9	78%	0.05
Juwan Howard	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.02	-0.04	21	49%	0.07	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.02
Aaron Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	10	68%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Gerard King	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Laron Profit	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	1	75%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jahidi White	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	6	21%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Whitney	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	58%	0.02	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.05	15	53%	-0.04	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.03	13	53%	-0.03	3	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.02	0.01	14	37%	-0.13	3	-0.07	10	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.6	33.2	15.4	28.6	2.4	23.6	131.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +46.6%

WAS +2.6%

DEN -5.0%

WAS +4.8%

WAS +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DEN	NBA	WAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	13.7	15.2	102.0	87.8	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		101.1	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.8		103.7	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.0	14.7	14.3	21.3	15.7
DEN	11.8	16.0	12.9	14.7	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	78	78	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.09	21	-7	28	15.2	17.8	-2.62	13.6	14.0	-0.41
Chris Whitney	78	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.07	19	-5	24	15.0	18.6	-3.63	13.6	14.2	-0.60
Gerard King	52	53	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.06	16	-2	18	14.6	16.9	-2.30	13.8	13.5	0.34
Juwan Howard	83	83	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	4	6	16.1	13.6	2.50	13.5	14.9	-1.41
Jahidi White	35	36	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.18	16	-2	18	14.0	16.7	-2.67	14.1	13.5	0.60
Tracy Murray	61	59	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.19	1	13	-12	16.7	14.2	2.49	13.8	13.5	0.27
Aaron Williams	37	37	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	12	-10	17.6	14.6	3.06	14.5	13.2	1.35
Don Reid	26	26	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	17	-20	14.0	16.3	-2.28	12.1	14.2	-2.17
Laron Profit	20	19	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.16	-5	19	-24	18.6	15.0	3.63	14.2	13.6	0.60
Richard Hamilton	20	20	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.17	-7	21	-28	17.8	15.2	2.62	14.0	13.6	0.41

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	41	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.25	5	-19	24	12.5	14.5	-1.95	16.3	15.3	1.04
Chris Herren	22	21	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-12	10	14.3	13.5	0.83	15.0	15.9	-0.97
Popeye Jones	34	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.14	-1	-13	12	14.0	13.5	0.50	14.6	16.2	-1.66
Keon Clark	35	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-6	-2	13.7	13.6	0.11	16.9	15.1	1.82
Antonio McDyess	55	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-1	-12	13.2	14.3	-1.16	16.6	14.5	2.05
James Posey	24	26	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.16	-15	1	-16	13.4	13.8	-0.40	14.3	16.2	-1.97
George McCloud	75	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.32	1	-15	16	14.0	12.7	1.22	16.4	13.5	2.88
Ryan Bowen	72	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	14.2	12.3	1.86	14.9	17.9	-3.00
Chris Gatling	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	3	-20	14.2	13.1	1.04	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Nick Van Exel	79	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	-2	-10	13.3	15.2	-1.84	15.8	15.2	0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 117, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.2,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
OKC 104, MEM 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.23,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
UTA 103, HOU 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.25,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%