NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	101		Excitement	6.4 [540]		MVP	Grant Hill (DET): +14.6%
Vancouver Grizzlies	99		Comeback	4.9 [401]		LVP	Michael Dickerson (VAN): -17.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15	0.03	0.09	-0.02	23	58%	0.18	3	-0.04	7	100%	0.06
Lindsey Hunter	0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.05	0.02	8	87%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	16	56%	0.07	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.03
Mikki Moore	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	11	42%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Crotty	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	8	57%	-0.01	5	-0.16	5	80%	0.01

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	15	67%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	9	60%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.08	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	11	64%	0.03	7	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.02	-0.10	0.07	18	55%	-0.07	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.6	28.6	16.8	28.3	2.4	36.4	136.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +17.0%

DET +11.1%

VAN -8.9%

DET +26.2%

DET +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	VAN	NBA	DET	VAN	NBA
this game	13.9	16.5	15.2	105.2	105.3	101.7
season	14.1	15.9		104.2	99.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		105.9	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.5	12.7	12.3	16.1	13.9
VAN	14.9	17.3	18.5	15.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	53	51	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.38	9	-7	16	13.7	14.1	-0.38	16.3	16.6	-0.31
Lindsey Hunter	76	73	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-5	12	13.6	14.8	-1.16	15.9	18.5	-2.66
Christian Laettner	77	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-3	8	13.3	16.2	-2.90	15.8	19.2	-3.38
Jerry Stackhouse	84	82	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.48	-1	3	-4	13.5	16.8	-3.37	16.0	19.8	-3.87
Grant Hill	80	78	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.29	4	-2	6	14.3	11.9	2.41	16.6	15.9	0.70
Eric Montross	10	10	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	-4	10	15.0	13.8	1.24	20.4	16.0	4.41
Michael Curry	28	28	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	1	0	14.0	13.8	0.16	17.6	16.0	1.59
Terry Mills	32	32	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	5	-8	13.1	14.3	-1.19	16.0	16.7	-0.65
John Crotty	20	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	7	-12	14.8	13.6	1.16	18.5	15.9	2.66
Mikki Moore	20	20	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.13	-13	15	-28	17.2	13.0	4.25	18.1	16.0	2.09

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Reeves	52	54	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-7	12	16.8	16.0	0.87	14.7	12.8	1.91
Othella Harrington	68	68	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-7	12	16.4	16.7	-0.27	13.5	14.9	-1.37
Dennis Scott	43	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.51	9	-11	20	16.6	16.4	0.19	14.8	13.1	1.76
Mike Bibby	88	89	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.48	6	-8	14	16.2	20.3	-4.14	13.8	15.3	-1.51
Felipe Lopez	15	18	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.04	-13	11	-24	17.8	16.2	1.60	12.9	14.1	-1.23
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	79	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.36	-2	0	-2	15.8	20.1	-4.29	13.7	14.9	-1.26
Michael Dickerson	86	87	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-2	2	16.5	16.0	0.50	14.1	11.9	2.20
Grant Long	39	39	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.07	-20	18	-38	17.3	15.8	1.50	13.0	14.5	-1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.05,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 114, NYK 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0,0	92.0%
MIA 92, NYK 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.0%
SAS 97, BOS 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	91.9%