NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	5.0 [791]		MVP	Mike James (MIA): +19.4%
New York Knicks	84		Comeback	4.1 [178]		LVP	Vladimir Stepania (MIA): -13.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.12	0.01	10	71%	0.19	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	20	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Travis Best	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	72%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	8	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	17	49%	-0.03	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.04	9	83%	0.10	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.02
Othella Harrington	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	15	53%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	14	44%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	14	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.0	26.1	16.4	23.9	1.7	36.3	129.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.2%

MIA +1.5%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +0.5%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.5	104.5	95.5	101.6
season	16.3	15.6		94.6	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		104.0	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.8	14.4	16.7	17.2	16.5
NYK	15.6	18.4	16.8	14.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	70	71	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	-6	20	16.5	16.7	-0.27	16.2	16.4	-0.17
Caron Butler	74	74	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-2	12	16.5	16.6	-0.16	16.1	17.1	-1.02
Mike James	44	44	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	-2	12	15.6	17.4	-1.80	16.1	16.3	-0.25
Vladimir Stepania	42	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.22	6	2	4	16.5	16.5	0.02	16.6	15.9	0.74
Anthony Carter	19	18	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	3	2	15.8	16.7	-0.92	16.4	16.2	0.22
Eddie Jones	76	77	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.25	-3	11	-14	17.3	11.5	5.80	16.2	16.2	0.04
Travis Best	51	51	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	6	-4	16.4	16.6	-0.24	16.5	15.8	0.65
Brian Grant	64	64	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	12	-16	16.6	16.4	0.19	16.0	16.8	-0.79

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allan Houston	66	65	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-12	16	16.1	16.7	-0.62	16.6	16.1	0.52
Othella Harrington	32	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-5	2	17.2	15.7	1.48	17.6	15.9	1.70
Howard Eisley	62	62	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-9	10	15.4	18.1	-2.64	16.4	16.9	-0.53
Clar. Weatherspoon	49	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-7	6	15.3	17.3	-2.01	16.3	16.8	-0.50
Kurt Thomas	71	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-6	4	15.8	17.9	-2.14	16.3	17.6	-1.31
Michael Doleac	24	23	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	2	-12	18.0	15.5	2.45	16.2	16.6	-0.46
Charlie Ward	23	24	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-1	-6	18.3	15.5	2.77	17.0	16.3	0.73
Shandon Anderson	42	41	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	0	-8	16.8	15.7	1.09	16.8	16.3	0.46
Latrell Sprewell	71	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.15	-14	6	-20	16.0	16.9	-0.90	16.2	17.9	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.05,0	94.1%
SAS 107, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.29,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.06,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.8%
UTA 93, HOU 71	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%