NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	110		Excitement	2.9 [1161]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +10.4%
San Antonio Spurs	88		Comeback	1.1 [226]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -10.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.00	-0.01	13	73%	0.12	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	3	125%	0.06	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.17	-0.00	0.11	14	79%	0.09	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Sean Rooks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	65%	0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Damon Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Sundov	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	11	36%	0.01	4	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.06	20	52%	-0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	12	71%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Mario Elie	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	78%	0.03	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.09	13	40%	0.01	0	0.00	9	44%	-0.02
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.07	6	71%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Derrick Dial	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.13	0.00	-0.09	10	25%	-0.04	3	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	4	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	3	43%	-0.05	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	26.3	16.8	27.5	2.4	23.6	126.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.9%

SAS -0.6%

SAS -0.5%

DAL +17.6%

DAL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.5	15.2	122.2	97.8	101.7
season	14.8	15.5		104.2	101.6
opponent	15.4	14.8		95.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.0	17.0	15.8	21.1	16.5
SAS	16.5	15.0	14.8	15.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.28	26	-4	30	16.7	15.6	1.07	16.4	10.9	5.57
Steve Nash	76	75	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.27	25	-3	28	16.7	15.1	1.59	15.9	13.4	2.53
Dirk Nowitzki	56	56	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.27	24	-2	26	15.3	18.4	-3.09	15.6	15.4	0.11
Erick Strickland	58	60	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.22	20	2	18	14.5	20.2	-5.69	15.6	15.3	0.37
Sean Rooks	54	53	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.15	17	5	12	17.4	15.1	2.39	15.7	15.3	0.36
Cedric Ceballos	46	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	16	-10	18.2	14.7	3.54	14.8	16.2	-1.36
Shawn Bradley	35	36	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	17	-12	15.0	17.5	-2.48	15.7	15.4	0.26
Greg Buckner	38	37	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.17	-5	27	-32	18.6	14.9	3.66	14.9	15.9	-1.01
Damon Jones	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	26	-30	15.8	16.5	-0.70	9.5	15.9	-6.44
Bruno Sundov	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	26	-30	15.8	16.5	-0.70	9.5	15.9	-6.44

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	30	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-20	18	14.8	15.8	-1.02	19.4	15.0	4.42
Sean Elliott	16	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-19	16	15.7	15.5	0.29	14.4	17.0	-2.63
Antonio Daniels	54	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-19	16	14.7	16.7	-1.93	17.9	14.4	3.50
Derrick Dial	43	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-12	2	15.7	15.4	0.31	17.5	15.6	1.91
Malik Rose	50	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.09	-9	-13	4	15.5	15.5	0.07	17.4	15.4	1.96
Samaki Walker	40	41	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	0.13	-12	-10	-2	15.8	15.3	0.52	16.6	16.4	0.18
Jerome Kersey	32	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-9	-4	16.5	15.0	1.49	14.2	17.7	-3.55
David Robinson	50	49	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	-12	2	15.3	15.8	-0.52	16.4	16.6	-0.18
Tim Duncan	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.05	-13	-9	-4	15.5	15.5	-0.07	15.4	17.4	-1.96
Mario Elie	42	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.09	-15	-7	-8	15.6	15.5	0.11	15.6	17.2	-1.66
Avery Johnson	53	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.14	-20	-2	-18	15.8	15.0	0.82	15.3	18.2	-2.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 99, SAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.23,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
HOU 97, LAL 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
DET 105, NYK 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%