NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	105		Excitement	1.4 [1263]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (SAS): +3.5%
Atlanta Hawks	79		Comeback	1.0 [1053]		LVP	Alan Henderson (ATL): -8.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.02	8	69%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.14	0.00	0.11	10	90%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	13	64%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	9	55%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Mario Elie	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Derrick Dial	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	13	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.12	0.00	-0.09	14	39%	-0.01	3	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roshown McLeod	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	12	58%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.02	5	-0.06	3	100%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.00	15	39%	-0.05	1	-0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0.05	10	59%	-0.02	3	-0.05	2	100%	-0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	14	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	27.1	15.6	21.2	1.8	24.1	115.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.0%

SAS +3.1%

SAS +3.2%

SAS +14.5%

SAS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.5	15.3	15.2	116.7	86.8	101.7
season	15.5	15.4		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.1	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.2	14.4	19.1	19.1	16.5
ATL	15.8	15.0	14.5	15.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	46	45	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.39	30	-4	34	14.3	18.9	-4.58	16.6	14.0	2.69
Jerome Kersey	50	52	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.11	18	8	10	16.6	16.5	0.08	15.9	14.4	1.53
Mario Elie	56	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.20	20	6	14	16.1	17.4	-1.30	15.4	15.0	0.42
Tim Duncan	58	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.10	15	11	4	16.1	17.3	-1.24	14.9	16.0	-1.05
Avery Johnson	46	45	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.19	18	8	10	15.1	18.1	-3.03	16.1	14.5	1.54
Antonio Daniels	54	55	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.18	13	13	0	16.7	16.3	0.40	14.7	16.1	-1.41
Samaki Walker	49	51	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	20	-14	18.3	14.4	3.91	14.9	15.8	-0.92
Jaren Jackson	48	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	21	-16	17.9	15.0	2.81	14.7	16.0	-1.26
Felton Spencer	27	27	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	25	-24	18.1	15.9	2.19	14.6	15.6	-0.99
Derrick Dial	16	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	22	-18	17.9	16.2	1.69	14.0	15.5	-1.54

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Crawford	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-24	22	14.0	15.4	-1.41	17.3	16.5	0.88
Dion Glover	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-24	22	11.2	15.5	-4.32	16.8	16.5	0.31
Cal Bowdler	17	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-24	22	16.8	14.9	1.82	19.4	15.9	3.54
Bimbo Coles	25	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.19	-12	-14	2	15.0	15.4	-0.34	17.7	16.1	1.57
Lorenzen Wright	28	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.19	-12	-14	2	14.8	15.5	-0.72	18.0	15.9	2.03
Isaiah Rider	28	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.13	-11	-15	4	15.5	15.2	0.36	17.4	16.2	1.24
LaPhonso Ellis	22	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.14	-12	-14	2	14.9	15.4	-0.56	16.3	16.6	-0.31
Roshown McLeod	61	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	-14	2	15.6	14.6	0.97	16.5	16.6	-0.11
Jim Jackson	58	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-13	0	15.5	14.9	0.64	16.1	17.3	-1.19
Jason Terry	66	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	-12	-2	15.4	15.0	0.34	16.1	17.7	-1.57
Dikembe Mutombo	73	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	-11	-4	15.0	16.3	-1.31	16.5	16.7	-0.15
Alan Henderson	64	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.24	-23	-3	-20	15.4	15.0	0.41	15.2	19.8	-4.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 111, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.2%
MIA 105, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
SAS 118, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.7%