NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	5.1 [780]		MVP	Shawn Marion (PHX): +11.7%
Phoenix Suns	100		Comeback	1.1 [1120]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -21.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	-0.02	0.04	17	59%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	3	62%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	12	35%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	11	71%	0.01	5	-0.11	13	85%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22,-0.21	-0.16	-0.08	-0.03	14	36%	-0.09	6	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	7	81%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	19	64%	0.16	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.05
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	4	91%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.03	11	65%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Mark West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toby Bailey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.02	5	67%	0.05	5	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.21	-0.06	-0.08	15	33%	-0.14	5	-0.06	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.6	31.3	17.7	28.5	2.8	34.6	144.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +37.7%

MIA -12.9%

PHX +0.7%

PHX +21.8%

PHX +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHX	NBA	MIA	PHX	NBA
this game	15.2	14.9	15.2	95.8	105.3	101.7
season	15.7	14.8		101.2	101.4
opponent	15.3	15.9		96.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	15.0	14.5	14.8	15.2
PHX	15.1	12.3	17.5	15.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	14	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-5	2	14.3	15.4	-1.13	16.6	14.6	1.95
Clar. Weatherspoon	28	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-7	6	16.0	14.9	1.11	16.0	14.5	1.53
Mark Strickland	16	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-3	-2	13.1	15.7	-2.63	14.1	15.1	-1.05
Anthony Carter	37	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-6	4	14.6	15.6	-1.02	14.8	15.0	-0.20
Dan Majerle	75	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-5	2	15.2	15.4	-0.17	14.7	15.7	-1.07
Jamal Mashburn	68	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-1	-6	15.3	15.1	0.25	14.9	14.9	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	88	87	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-5	2	15.4	13.5	1.91	14.6	17.7	-3.11
Tim Hardaway	72	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.11	-10	2	-12	16.0	13.0	2.94	14.8	15.3	-0.51
P.J. Brown	82	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	15.0	16.6	-1.63	15.1	13.7	1.40

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	61	64	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-3	14	15.0	14.8	0.22	15.5	14.8	0.66
Rodney Rogers	62	63	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-3	14	14.8	15.1	-0.28	15.1	15.6	-0.54
Jason Kidd	85	87	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	-3	14	15.0	13.9	1.12	15.2	15.9	-0.70
Anfernee Hardaway	86	87	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.29	5	3	2	14.9	14.7	0.26	15.1	16.7	-1.56
Corie Blount	62	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	6	-4	14.3	16.0	-1.72	14.9	15.8	-0.91
Clifford Robinson	44	45	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.01	7	1	6	15.0	14.8	0.22	16.3	14.3	2.04
Randy Livingston	24	22	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	4	0	15.0	14.9	0.07	14.4	15.5	-1.09
Mark West	4	4	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	5	-2	17.2	14.8	2.45	17.2	15.2	2.09
Toby Bailey	2	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	12	-16	3.5	15.2	-11.65	12.0	15.3	-3.32
Luc Longley	11	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	14	-20	21.0	14.1	6.89	15.7	15.2	0.48
Shawn Marion	34	33	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	12	-16	13.9	15.5	-1.55	15.2	15.3	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 106, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.88,0.81,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%
CLE 89, HOU 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.89,0.86,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
ATL 85, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%