NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	3.4 [1088]		MVP	Glen Rice (LAL): +5.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	93		Comeback	1.0 [1194]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -15.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.09	-0.00	0.09	4	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Harold Jamison	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.03	13	65%	0.07	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.00	-0.06	18	44%	-0.03	2	-0.02	12	58%	-0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	10	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	0.00	5	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	16	57%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	71%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ron Harper	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	9	64%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
John Salley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.21	0.00	-0.05	17	37%	-0.09	4	-0.07	12	58%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.8	32.4	19.3	28.3	2.4	32.5	144.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +23.4%

LAL +6.3%

LAL +9.8%

LAL +8.1%

LAL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.3	15.2	84.2	98.9	101.7
season	15.7	15.3		101.2	105.6
opponent	15.1	15.9		98.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	15.0	15.6	15.4	15.2
LAL	13.9	15.0	16.4	15.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Harold Jamison	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-15	17	9.7	15.4	-5.74	19.0	15.2	3.83
Duane Causwell	1	2	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-14	15	17.0	15.2	1.80	27.0	15.0	12.00
P.J. Brown	35	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-10	7	15.8	14.9	0.87	16.4	14.5	1.85
Mark Strickland	22	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.12	1	-14	15	14.5	15.5	-1.00	15.8	15.1	0.73
Bruce Bowen	38	37	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-9	5	15.1	15.3	-0.24	15.2	15.3	-0.02
Anthony Carter	39	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-9	5	13.6	16.4	-2.77	14.7	15.7	-0.96
Jamal Mashburn	86	85	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	-5	-3	15.3	14.7	0.61	15.6	12.1	3.48
Dan Majerle	58	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-3	-7	15.4	15.0	0.41	15.1	15.5	-0.35
Clar. Weatherspoon	61	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-4	-5	14.6	16.3	-1.63	15.5	14.7	0.81
Tim Hardaway	64	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	1	-15	16.2	13.3	2.91	15.0	15.7	-0.63
Alonzo Mourning	68	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.05	-17	4	-21	15.8	13.7	2.17	13.9	18.3	-4.37

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	65	66	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	4	5	14.7	16.6	-1.92	14.8	16.1	-1.27
Glen Rice	68	69	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	2	9	15.2	15.5	-0.29	15.5	14.4	1.15
Kobe Bryant	75	76	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	15.4	14.8	0.52	15.3	15.0	0.28
Shaquille O'Neal	71	72	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.28	0	13	-13	15.3	15.1	0.22	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Ron Harper	51	52	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	7	-1	15.2	15.3	-0.13	15.3	15.1	0.19
Derek Fisher	42	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	8	-3	15.3	15.2	0.05	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Brian Shaw	20	19	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	7	-1	14.9	15.3	-0.39	15.0	15.3	-0.28
John Salley	17	18	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.14	11	2	9	14.5	15.4	-0.96	16.7	14.9	1.85
Rick Fox	24	23	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	9	-5	15.2	15.3	-0.12	15.0	15.3	-0.29
A.C. Green	29	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	9	-5	16.6	14.7	1.92	16.1	14.8	1.27
Travis Knight	6	5	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	11	-9	16.8	15.1	1.69	10.0	15.5	-5.51
Devean George	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	15	-17	19.0	15.2	3.83	9.7	15.4	-5.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 103, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
MIN 83, SEA 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
MIL 94, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,0.95,1	96.4%