NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	8.0 [247]		MVP	Lucious Harris (NJN): +1.2%
New Jersey Nets	91		Comeback	2.1 [323]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -26.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.09	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Buford	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	54%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.19	-0.09	-0.15	-0.05	17	50%	0.09	6	-0.29	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.31,-0.25,-0.26	-0.09	-0.18	-0.01	15	44%	-0.10	3	-0.16	4	75%	-0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	14	51%	-0.03	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.14	0.07	-0.01	15	45%	0.07	4	-0.13	10	80%	0.10
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	15	49%	-0.03	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.06
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	13	43%	0.00	2	-0.10	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	0.3	27.1	14.8	25.2	2.4	39.5	134.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -13.8%

NJN +27.1%

MIA -15.0%

NJN +42.0%

NJN +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	15.2	17.0	15.2	93.3	102.2	101.7
season	15.7	15.5		101.2	102.1
opponent	14.7	15.9		103.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	14.6	14.6	16.5	15.2
NJN	16.7	19.0	16.1	16.2	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	18	19	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.01	9	-16	25	13.6	15.6	-2.01	19.1	16.4	2.65
Alonzo Mourning	67	66	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.08	3	-10	13	15.0	15.8	-0.75	16.3	18.8	-2.45
Voshon Lenard	72	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-8	9	14.8	16.9	-2.15	16.2	19.9	-3.73
Rodney Buford	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	-2	-3	16.4	15.0	1.36	19.0	16.6	2.38
Anthony Carter	32	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	0	-7	15.1	15.3	-0.20	18.6	16.1	2.49
Otis Thorpe	16	15	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	0	-7	14.2	15.4	-1.18	18.7	16.6	2.05
P.J. Brown	53	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.43	5	-12	17	15.6	14.7	0.88	16.7	17.4	-0.75
Clar. Weatherspoon	44	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	8	-23	15.4	15.0	0.41	17.7	16.2	1.46
Tim Hardaway	63	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.46	-3	-4	1	15.5	14.5	1.06	16.6	17.9	-1.27
Jamal Mashburn	72	70	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	9	-25	15.6	13.6	2.01	16.4	19.1	-2.65

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Van Horn	75	77	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-5	17	16.5	19.5	-3.01	15.1	15.9	-0.82
Kendall Gill	73	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-5	17	16.5	19.2	-2.71	15.6	13.2	2.40
Stephon Marbury	77	77	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-1	9	16.8	17.8	-1.00	15.8	11.9	3.86
Kerry Kittles	71	72	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.30	2	5	-3	16.3	19.8	-3.52	15.4	14.5	0.90
Jim McIlvaine	43	44	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.33	-5	12	-17	17.1	16.8	0.25	16.0	14.4	1.61
Jamie Feick	17	17	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.08	7	0	7	17.2	16.9	0.33	16.5	14.9	1.54
Evan Eschmeyer	25	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	5	-3	16.4	17.2	-0.79	13.2	16.0	-2.80
Johnny Newman	26	27	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	7	-7	18.7	16.3	2.38	13.6	15.9	-2.38
Lucious Harris	20	20	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	8	-9	19.6	16.2	3.40	13.1	15.8	-2.73
Scott Burrell	18	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	9	-11	19.2	16.4	2.76	15.3	15.2	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.57,0.96,1	92.6%
BOS 112, LAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.56,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.92,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.37,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.73,1	91.8%
UTA 87, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.91,1	91.7%