NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	87		Excitement	8.2 [194]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +23.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	2.6 [449]		LVP	Deron Williams (UTA): -23.4%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22	0.00	0.22	-0.00	16	45%	0.25	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.08
Carlos Boozer	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	21	55%	0.15	3	-0.16	5	80%	-0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.06	0.08	-0.12	0.01	16	62%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sundiata Gaines	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Wesley Matthews	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	9	33%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	12	37%	-0.08	3	-0.15	6	83%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.20	0.01	8	64%	0.26	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	-0.01	14	67%	0.24	3	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	16	61%	0.17	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	30%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	14	32%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,0.03,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	15	42%	-0.12	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	23.6	15.6	30.7	1.7	37.4	133.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.1%

UTA -5.3%

UTA -6.7%

MIL +28.5%

MIL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.1	15.3	92.6	97.9	106.0
season	15.3	15.5		109.5	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		101.8	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	14.9	19.2	14.9	11.8	15.0
MIL	16.4	13.7	15.1	15.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	38	39	0.52	-1.02	1.54	0.17	12	-20	32	15.2	14.9	0.32	16.5	14.2	2.22
Sundiata Gaines	11	13	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.08	5	-13	18	16.0	14.9	1.11	13.4	15.4	-2.02
Wesley Matthews	47	47	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-5	2	14.9	15.1	-0.26	15.7	14.6	1.18
Andrei Kirilenko	37	39	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	0	-8	15.3	14.8	0.46	15.7	14.8	0.89
Kyle Korver	43	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-5	2	14.6	15.4	-0.73	14.9	15.3	-0.42
CJ Miles	61	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	15.2	14.6	0.59	14.5	16.3	-1.76
Deron Williams	83	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.18	-13	5	-18	14.9	16.0	-1.11	15.4	13.4	2.02
Mehmet Okur	81	83	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.25	-15	7	-22	15.0	14.8	0.20	14.8	17.0	-2.18
Carlos Boozer	69	72	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.45	-13	5	-18	14.9	15.4	-0.52	14.8	16.2	-1.38

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	83	79	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.26	18	-10	28	14.9	16.4	-1.43	15.2	14.1	1.14
Andrew Bogut	80	77	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.31	15	-7	22	15.1	15.4	-0.27	14.5	17.5	-2.99
John Salmons	85	82	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.30	15	-7	22	15.0	16.2	-1.27	14.7	17.5	-2.84
Carlos Delfino	85	82	0.56	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-3	14	15.2	14.4	0.82	14.8	16.3	-1.50
Ersan Ilyasova	52	51	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	8	-8	14.0	16.4	-2.36	14.3	15.9	-1.55
Luc Mbah a Moute	45	43	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.19	8	0	8	16.4	14.0	2.36	15.9	14.3	1.55
Kurt Thomas	17	17	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.04	-7	15	-22	15.4	15.1	0.27	17.5	14.5	2.99
Luke Ridnour	14	15	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	18	-28	16.4	14.9	1.43	14.1	15.2	-1.14
Jerry Stackhouse	24	24	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.01	-10	18	-28	15.3	15.1	0.26	16.9	14.4	2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.35,0.34,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.68,0.72,0.57,0.96,1	91.7%
MIA 84, NJN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.83,1	91.7%
IND 88, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.85,1	91.7%