NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Excitement	4.7 [867]		MVP	Terrell Brandon (MIN): +11.1%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	1.2 [618]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -11.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	19	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.01	22	61%	0.17	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	4	27%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.00	0.03	10	82%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	16	47%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bill Curley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	0.04	11	63%	0.02	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	8	40%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.17	-0.00	-0.06	17	51%	0.02	7	-0.13	13	69%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	28.3	16.7	24.1	1.7	36.3	133.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +35.3%

HOU -7.8%

MIN +7.8%

MIN +11.4%

MIN +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.6	16.5	15.2	100.0	90.3	101.7
season	15.1	15.4		103.5	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.7		103.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.6	13.0	15.1	17.0	14.6
HOU	15.2	16.8	19.1	15.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	67	65	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.24	10	-2	12	14.7	14.5	0.22	17.5	14.2	3.30
Rasho Nesterovic	73	74	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.18	12	-4	16	14.2	16.3	-2.04	17.9	10.9	6.96
Kevin Garnett	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-3	14	14.8	14.1	0.65	17.0	14.7	2.35
Malik Sealy	50	52	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.07	10	-2	12	14.9	14.3	0.61	17.1	15.7	1.48
Anthony Peeler	61	61	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.31	-2	10	-12	14.9	14.1	0.87	15.6	18.2	-2.60
Wally Szczerbiak	30	30	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	3	2	14.7	14.6	0.04	15.8	16.8	-0.96
Sam Mitchell	45	46	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.10	2	6	-4	14.2	15.1	-0.95	16.8	16.2	0.63
Bobby Jackson	27	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	10	-12	14.3	14.8	-0.44	13.9	17.7	-3.81
Joe Smith	36	36	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.14	-6	14	-20	15.0	14.4	0.63	13.5	18.4	-4.82

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bill Curley	16	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.16	3	-11	14	18.8	16.0	2.81	15.9	14.4	1.52
Bryce Drew	32	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.09	-1	-7	6	17.0	16.2	0.74	14.8	14.5	0.28
Hakeem Olajuwon	40	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-7	6	17.2	15.9	1.26	14.8	14.5	0.34
Anthony Miller	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-1	-6	14.8	17.2	-2.41	14.1	14.9	-0.82
Kenny Thomas	77	75	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.28	0	-8	8	16.3	17.2	-0.93	14.5	15.5	-1.02
Cuttino Mobley	53	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	-6	4	16.1	17.0	-0.91	14.6	14.6	0.00
Shandon Anderson	55	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	0	-8	17.4	15.2	2.20	14.5	14.9	-0.43
Walt Williams	64	65	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-4	0	15.7	18.2	-2.55	14.8	14.2	0.59
Matt Bullard	24	26	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	3	-14	16.2	16.6	-0.32	14.7	14.6	0.07
Steve Francis	75	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	1	-10	16.6	16.1	0.46	14.5	15.1	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.07,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 102, IND 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
UTA 102, WAS 92	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0,0	95.2%
ORL 97, DAL 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.2%