NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	102		Excitement	7.5 [320]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +24.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Comeback	3.7 [200]		LVP	Brent Barry (SEA): -8.7%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.24	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.09	0.13	-0.03	27	57%	0.32	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Rashard Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	64%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Vin Baker	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	15	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Vernon Maxwell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	14	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.02
Ruben Patterson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Brent Barry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	-0.00	9	72%	0.08	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.02	21	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	15	53%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	-0.00	-0.03	12	56%	0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.03
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	19	50%	0.07	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.03
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.3	26.5	15.4	23.4	1.7	37.2	127.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -11.8%

MIN +13.0%

MIN +31.6%

MIN +16.5%

MIN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIN	NBA	SEA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	15.2	108.5	117.2	101.7
season	14.9	15.1		103.5	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.1	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.0	15.2	17.6	13.5	15.2
MIN	13.2	16.1	18.4	15.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	41	42	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-10	13	14.6	15.7	-1.14	17.6	14.0	3.63
Vernon Maxwell	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-9	11	13.7	16.4	-2.65	16.8	14.7	2.11
Greg Foster	22	21	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.19	-1	-6	5	14.6	15.4	-0.80	18.7	14.7	3.96
Vin Baker	68	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-3	-1	15.7	13.9	1.82	15.3	16.5	-1.22
Brent Barry	65	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-3	-1	16.2	12.9	3.33	14.9	17.0	-2.06
Gary Payton	94	93	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	15.2	0.0	15.20	15.6	0.0	15.60
Ruben Patterson	55	52	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.19	-12	5	-17	15.1	15.3	-0.14	13.8	17.9	-4.11
Horace Grant	84	83	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.31	-12	5	-17	15.2	14.9	0.34	15.1	19.5	-4.37

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	83	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-3	13	15.6	15.9	-0.33	15.4	13.7	1.76
Terrell Brandon	93	94	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	15.6	0.0	15.60	15.2	0.0	15.20
Joe Smith	57	57	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	5	-3	17.1	13.3	3.79	14.1	16.9	-2.88
Sam Mitchell	43	42	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	3	1	14.8	16.3	-1.51	15.1	15.3	-0.15
Anthony Peeler	43	41	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	6	-5	16.0	15.3	0.70	14.3	15.9	-1.53
Wally Szczerbiak	37	39	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	1	5	17.2	14.6	2.64	17.1	13.9	3.20
Malik Sealy	63	66	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	4	-1	15.0	16.9	-1.97	14.7	16.4	-1.75
Rasho Nesterovic	40	42	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	4	-1	13.5	17.2	-3.69	16.4	14.2	2.22
Tom Hammonds	6	7	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	8	-9	16.2	15.6	0.60	14.4	15.3	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.23,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.7,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.78,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, GSW 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.1%
CHI 77, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.4%
SAS 88, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.71,0.84,0.85,1	92.1%