NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	77		Excitement	6.3 [555]		MVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): +20.1%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	2.5 [668]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -21.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.07	-0.04	14	43%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Cedric Simmons	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	10	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	11	45%	0.00	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.19	-0.05	-0.03	14	31%	-0.07	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	-0.00	0.16	-0.05	13	46%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.12	-0.00	11	56%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	9	73%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	23	51%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.05
Jamaal Magloire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.02	10	27%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	27.6	19.6	26.4	2.7	31.6	133.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.6%

MIA +3.4%

CHI -6.7%

MIA +20.9%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.3	15.5	84.6	95.7	106.4
season	14.8	16.0		106.3	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.5	16.0	17.0	12.9	14.8
MIA	15.9	14.6	17.3	17.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	42	44	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.05	9	-22	31	14.4	15.1	-0.72	16.4	16.2	0.17
Cedric Simmons	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	11.5	14.9	-3.37	19.0	16.2	2.77
Tyrus Thomas	52	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-7	1	14.1	15.7	-1.53	16.6	16.0	0.56
Ben Gordon	69	70	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-9	5	15.0	14.0	0.98	16.8	14.9	1.94
Andres Nocioni	50	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-7	1	15.2	14.3	0.86	16.5	16.1	0.44
Aaron Gray	47	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	-4	-5	15.3	14.2	1.09	16.2	16.5	-0.33
Thabo Sefolosha	31	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.00	-10	-3	-7	15.7	14.3	1.34	16.1	16.5	-0.40
Joakim Noah	31	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-8	3	14.7	14.8	-0.17	15.6	16.7	-1.10
Derrick Rose	76	78	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	1	-15	14.2	18.0	-3.84	15.9	18.4	-2.55
Larry Hughes	55	57	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.07	-20	7	-27	15.2	14.2	0.94	16.4	16.2	0.17

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.02	14	-1	15	16.5	15.8	0.71	15.5	12.6	2.84
Daequan Cook	66	63	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.19	6	7	-1	16.2	16.7	-0.51	14.5	15.4	-0.87
Mario Chalmers	72	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	4	5	16.7	15.0	1.78	15.1	13.8	1.34
Michael Beasley	48	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	6	1	16.1	16.5	-0.40	14.4	15.2	-0.81
Udonis Haslem	62	60	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	5	3	17.1	14.7	2.38	14.3	15.6	-1.30
Jamaal Magloire	15	14	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	9	-5	17.2	16.2	1.05	15.3	14.7	0.58
Yakhouba Diawara	10	9	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	9	-5	14.6	16.5	-1.92	11.9	15.1	-3.22
Shawn Marion	52	50	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	7	-1	16.3	16.4	-0.11	15.1	14.4	0.73
Marcus Banks	22	21	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	9	-5	15.0	16.7	-1.78	13.8	15.1	-1.34
Joel Anthony	52	52	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	10	-7	15.8	17.0	-1.14	15.2	14.2	0.98
Chris Quinn	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	6.0	16.4	-10.43	10.0	14.8	-4.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.83,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1	93.9%
POR 91, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
MIA 76, CHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1	93.6%