NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	6.2 [569]		MVP	Hersey Hawkins (CHI): +14.8%
Chicago Bulls	83		Comeback	2.3 [86]		LVP	Metta World Peace (CHI): -24.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	8	37%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.06
Jamal Mashburn	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	14	40%	-0.09	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.12	-0.10	0.03	16	41%	-0.16	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	12	77%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.01	20	54%	0.14	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.07
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.03	-0.02	16	45%	-0.01	6	-0.17	8	87%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	7	24%	-0.15	3	-0.10	3	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	28.4	15.7	25.2	2.6	36.2	135.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +19.1%

CHI +23.9%

CHI +18.5%

MIA -13.1%

CHI +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.2	18.5	15.2	88.4	97.6	101.7
season	15.7	16.5		101.2	91.8
opponent	14.9	15.9		102.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.0	16.2	16.1	15.9	15.2
CHI	19.1	19.8	19.9	15.4	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	61	62	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.22	9	-16	25	14.0	18.2	-4.17	18.7	17.8	0.93
P.J. Brown	55	55	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-10	13	14.2	17.1	-2.85	19.2	17.1	2.10
Tim Hardaway	64	63	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-9	11	14.2	18.2	-3.95	19.3	16.1	3.13
Otis Thorpe	18	16	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-2	-3	16.4	14.9	1.52	18.7	18.4	0.28
Jamal Mashburn	75	74	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-9	11	14.3	21.4	-7.02	18.1	20.5	-2.40
Mark Strickland	6	6	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	2	-11	19.5	14.9	4.57	21.8	18.2	3.63
Alonzo Mourning	67	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-5	3	15.0	15.9	-0.90	18.4	18.7	-0.28
Rodney Buford	21	19	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.04	-13	6	-19	19.2	14.0	5.22	17.3	18.8	-1.54
Clar. Weatherspoon	31	30	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	3	-13	17.1	14.2	2.85	17.1	19.2	-2.10
Anthony Carter	32	31	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.24	-12	5	-17	18.0	13.6	4.44	17.1	19.2	-2.09

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	69	68	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-7	21	18.3	19.2	-0.97	15.5	14.3	1.15
Elton Brand	73	73	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	-2	11	18.7	17.2	1.50	15.3	14.8	0.56
Matt Maloney	34	34	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-4	15	18.8	18.2	0.56	16.9	14.2	2.66
Chris Carr	52	55	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-1	9	17.6	19.8	-2.22	16.0	13.9	2.05
Will Perdue	24	25	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	0	7	18.5	18.4	0.06	16.8	14.6	2.25
Chris Anstey	14	13	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	4	-1	18.4	18.5	-0.04	16.9	14.9	1.98
Dickey Simpkins	47	48	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	10	-13	18.4	18.5	-0.03	14.0	16.9	-2.91
Randy Brown	56	57	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	13	-19	18.6	18.1	0.49	13.9	17.9	-3.95
Michael Ruffin	12	13	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	9	-11	17.2	18.7	-1.50	14.8	15.3	-0.56
Metta World Peace	44	44	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.12	-6	13	-19	19.3	17.6	1.73	14.4	16.1	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.88,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 77, MIA 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.6%
VAN 75, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	92.9%
HOU 88, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.96,1	92.4%