NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	6.3 [558]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +15.7%
Dallas Mavericks	89		Comeback	1.1 [930]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -16.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	7	78%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Voshon Lenard	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08	0.07	0.00	0.00	13	63%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Otis Thorpe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	80%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	17	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Mark Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rodney Buford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	17	50%	0.06	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	14	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Rick Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	52%	0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	15	39%	-0.00	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	9	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	9	43%	-0.12	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	17	36%	0.00	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.7	27.3	16.3	25.5	1.6	38.0	137.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.5%

DAL -0.6%

MIA +15.7%

DAL -3.2%

MIA +12.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DAL	NBA	MIA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.3	16.1	15.2	102.2	101.1	101.7
season	15.7	14.8		101.2	104.2
opponent	14.8	15.9		104.6	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	13.6	15.4	21.3	16.3
DAL	16.6	17.1	16.6	13.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	61	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-1	5	17.1	14.6	2.48	15.5	17.2	-1.66
Otis Thorpe	42	40	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	-7	17	15.9	16.7	-0.83	17.0	15.2	1.82
Clar. Weatherspoon	39	37	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	-7	17	16.2	16.4	-0.21	17.2	15.2	1.95
Rex Walters	22	21	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	-4	11	16.8	16.1	0.63	15.6	16.2	-0.57
Alonzo Mourning	68	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	5	-7	17.2	13.5	3.71	15.6	17.4	-1.87
P.J. Brown	61	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	3	-3	15.7	17.6	-1.95	15.9	16.4	-0.47
Dan Majerle	77	75	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.42	-10	13	-23	16.7	13.8	2.87	15.6	18.7	-3.09
Anthony Carter	52	52	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.32	-7	10	-17	15.6	17.3	-1.71	16.1	16.0	0.05
Rodney Buford	2	1	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	1	1	11.0	16.4	-5.42	13.0	16.1	-3.09
Mark Strickland	26	28	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	2	-1	14.7	17.0	-2.31	17.4	15.4	1.91

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Hughes	2	3	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	0	-3	8.5	16.2	-7.73	12.3	16.4	-4.10
Michael Finley	78	80	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.36	5	-8	13	15.7	18.5	-2.76	16.1	17.8	-1.69
Dirk Nowitzki	71	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.39	5	-8	13	16.2	15.5	0.65	16.1	17.2	-1.09
Shawn Bradley	66	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-6	9	15.8	16.7	-0.89	17.1	13.5	3.60
Damon Jones	40	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-2	1	15.1	16.9	-1.80	17.4	15.3	2.19
Hubert Davis	63	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	5	-13	16.5	15.0	1.48	15.8	17.5	-1.74
Cedric Ceballos	59	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	0	-3	15.8	16.6	-0.79	17.1	14.6	2.48
Gary Trent	61	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.14	-13	10	-23	17.3	13.3	3.93	15.0	18.9	-3.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.3,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.19,0.04,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 99, BKN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	94.1%
TOR 94, UTA 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%
PHI 130, MIL 125	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.28,0.23,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0.03,0.02,0	93.4%