NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	8.7 [142]		MVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): +22.2%
Denver Nuggets	86		Comeback	4.8 [123]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -28.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.06	0.14	-0.00	8	75%	0.28	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Malik Rose	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	21	58%	0.06	5	-0.18	15	87%	0.07
Mario Elie	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.06,0.06,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	6	36%	0.06	1	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
David Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	10	42%	-0.11	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.09

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.22	0.22	0.05	0.17	-0.00	6	82%	0.28	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.08	0.00	21	50%	0.17	2	-0.12	8	87%	0.03
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	19	47%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	4	30%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.03	-0.03	-0.19	0.14	-0.02	15	20%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.17,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.18	-0.07	0.03	10	39%	-0.13	5	-0.14	8	37%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	48.4	2.6	30.1	15.4	24.5	2.8	44.1	167.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.4%

SAS -20.0%

DEN +33.9%

DEN +11.9%

SAS -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.4	15.2	90.3	92.5	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		101.6	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		103.7	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.4	13.7	17.9	16.9	15.6
DEN	16.3	14.0	15.7	15.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	45	46	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.12	10	-12	22	14.8	16.3	-1.47	13.8	17.0	-3.22
Malik Rose	33	34	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.06	9	-11	20	14.6	16.1	-1.52	15.4	15.4	0.00
Chucky Brown	53	52	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.06	8	-10	18	15.9	15.0	0.89	15.9	14.8	1.08
Jerome Kersey	12	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	0	-2	15.0	15.6	-0.64	14.2	15.6	-1.43
Samaki Walker	9	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	1	-4	13.3	15.8	-2.46	15.9	15.3	0.55
Terry Porter	45	46	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	3	-8	15.4	15.7	-0.35	14.8	16.0	-1.11
Tim Duncan	85	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-3	4	15.5	16.5	-1.03	15.5	15.0	0.46
Mario Elie	55	56	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.48	-8	6	-14	16.5	14.3	2.19	16.4	13.8	2.61
David Robinson	59	59	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.41	-11	9	-20	16.6	13.8	2.78	15.3	15.7	-0.42
Avery Johnson	69	67	-0.92	0.42	-1.35	-0.66	-9	7	-16	15.3	16.4	-1.16	15.9	14.2	1.74

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Rogers	43	42	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.58	5	-3	8	13.7	16.9	-3.14	14.7	16.3	-1.63
Nick Van Exel	78	78	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.61	2	0	2	15.8	13.1	2.71	15.4	16.5	-1.16
Keon Clark	73	72	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.35	8	-6	14	15.5	15.0	0.46	16.1	13.9	2.20
Ron Mercer	83	84	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	2	-2	15.5	14.5	1.02	15.7	13.9	1.85
Bryant Stith	35	33	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	2	-2	15.1	15.6	-0.43	16.0	15.3	0.64
James Posey	40	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	-1	4	16.8	14.4	2.40	16.4	14.9	1.44
Antonio McDyess	63	66	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	2	-2	16.3	13.5	2.87	15.6	15.5	0.06
George McCloud	25	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	4	-6	13.9	16.0	-2.09	13.2	16.4	-3.17
Chris Herren	15	15	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.17	0	2	-2	13.1	15.8	-2.71	16.5	15.4	1.16
Ryan Bowen	10	9	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	8	-14	14.5	15.5	-1.02	15.2	15.6	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.54,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.17,0.29,0.34,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.57,1	90.9%
TOR 86, IND 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.33,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.4,0.53,0.64,0.83,0.83,1	90.8%
SAC 94, LAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.57,1	90.4%