NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	6.0 [597]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +28.5%
Philadelphia 76ers	77		Comeback	2.3 [221]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -20.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.29	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.11,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.15	0.18	0.05	22	69%	0.33	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.05
Roy Rogers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	12	57%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.04
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	4	10%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.15	-0.08	-0.02	13	46%	-0.05	5	-0.16	11	82%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.12	0.05	-0.04	16	31%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Todd MacCulloch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	11	53%	0.01	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.01
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	8	28%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	33%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	14	37%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Aaron McKie	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	13	43%	-0.04	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.7	28.0	14.8	27.6	2.5	32.3	129.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.2%

DEN +18.5%

PHI -10.9%

PHI -1.7%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	14.3	15.2	15.2	96.9	78.6	101.7
season	14.8	15.0		101.5	99.5
opponent	15.5	15.0		98.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	14.3	15.0	14.5	14.3
PHI	14.1	15.1	15.0	16.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	80	81	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.06	16	1	15	14.1	15.3	-1.17	15.5	13.6	1.95
Raef LaFrentz	62	62	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	4	9	15.5	12.3	3.15	15.9	14.0	1.95
George McCloud	54	54	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	5	7	15.3	13.1	2.14	15.4	15.0	0.37
Roy Rogers	31	32	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.00	15	2	13	13.0	15.0	-2.00	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Chauncey Billups	69	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.17	19	-2	21	14.1	14.8	-0.69	15.7	14.2	1.50
Antonio McDyess	77	77	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.08	10	7	3	13.6	17.1	-3.55	14.8	16.8	-1.98
Bryant Stith	28	30	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	19	-21	14.8	14.1	0.69	14.2	15.7	-1.50
James Posey	44	45	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	12	-7	12.8	15.6	-2.73	14.7	15.7	-0.99
Cory Alexander	16	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	16	-15	16.2	14.0	2.30	14.4	15.4	-0.92
Keon Clark	24	25	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	21	-25	15.5	13.9	1.55	15.6	15.1	0.53

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Todd MacCulloch	12	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-17	17	13.3	15.5	-2.13	13.9	14.4	-0.47
Kevin Ollie	31	30	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-16	15	14.2	15.7	-1.53	16.0	13.6	2.37
Jumaine Jones	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-15	13	12.8	15.3	-2.53	11.6	14.5	-2.88
Billy Owens	25	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-16	15	14.2	15.5	-1.35	15.5	13.9	1.55
Matt Geiger	56	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	-11	5	15.3	15.1	0.15	14.1	14.6	-0.44
Aaron McKie	78	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-8	-1	15.6	13.7	1.83	14.1	15.1	-0.97
Bruce Bowen	18	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-9	1	14.9	15.3	-0.32	15.9	13.9	1.95
Tyrone Hill	61	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	-7	-3	15.4	14.8	0.59	14.7	13.7	0.96
George Lynch	73	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.03	-16	-1	-15	15.5	14.2	1.35	13.9	15.5	-1.55
Eric Snow	69	68	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.07	-16	-1	-15	15.3	14.9	0.39	13.4	16.5	-3.12
Larry Hughes	62	62	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.08	-16	-1	-15	15.5	14.7	0.76	14.5	14.1	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 104, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.22,0.17,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0	93.5%
UTA 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0	92.9%
MIA 81, ORL 59	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.17,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	92.6%