NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	6.0 [598]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIN): +14.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	109		Comeback	3.0 [686]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -20.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Rogers	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.00	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.02	5	62%	-0.00	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	7	86%	0.04
James Posey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	4	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
George McCloud	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.05	-0.07	7	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	15	47%	0.02	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.03	15	44%	-0.02	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.04	0.00	15	40%	-0.13	3	-0.07	10	60%	-0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.01	16	67%	0.14	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.05
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	15	58%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	11	64%	0.07	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	70%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	6	46%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	1	0%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	16	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	0.02	10	46%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	29.2	14.8	25.8	1.8	32.2	131.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +48.3%

DEN -6.0%

DEN -15.3%

MIN +23.2%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	15.6	13.9	15.2	93.9	112.4	101.7
season	14.8	15.1		101.5	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.0		101.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	15.6	17.7	15.1	15.6
MIN	14.2	15.7	11.1	14.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	64	64	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.19	-4	-13	9	16.0	14.8	1.27	13.9	14.1	-0.23
Ryan Bowen	10	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.20	-8	-9	1	13.0	15.9	-2.89	12.0	14.2	-2.16
Raef LaFrentz	54	54	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-16	15	15.9	15.3	0.58	14.4	13.3	1.06
Keon Clark	46	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-13	9	14.9	16.2	-1.36	13.9	14.0	-0.05
Chauncey Billups	37	36	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-12	7	15.3	15.8	-0.52	14.9	13.4	1.56
Roy Rogers	29	28	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-14	11	15.1	15.8	-0.69	13.5	14.1	-0.67
Nick Van Exel	68	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	-5	-7	16.2	14.2	2.01	13.6	14.7	-1.05
Antonio McDyess	63	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	1	-19	16.1	14.7	1.32	14.2	13.4	0.81
George McCloud	46	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.08	-13	-4	-9	15.5	15.6	-0.09	14.0	13.9	0.16
Ron Mercer	73	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.02	-17	0	-17	15.2	16.6	-1.41	13.6	14.8	-1.19

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	72	73	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.08	23	-6	29	14.0	13.8	0.24	15.1	17.1	-2.00
Wally Szczerbiak	69	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.20	25	-8	33	12.7	17.0	-4.25	16.6	12.9	3.78
Rasho Nesterovic	39	39	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	8	1	13.6	14.2	-0.63	13.9	16.7	-2.77
Kevin Garnett	67	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	2	13	14.9	11.8	3.14	17.4	11.7	5.68
Terrell Brandon	63	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.32	22	-5	27	13.4	14.9	-1.50	15.9	15.0	0.97
Anthony Peeler	37	36	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.05	9	8	1	13.0	14.5	-1.56	16.9	14.9	2.01
Malik Sealy	60	62	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	9	-1	14.5	13.0	1.56	14.9	16.9	-2.01
Bobby Jackson	34	35	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	22	-27	14.9	13.4	1.50	15.0	15.9	-0.97
William Avery	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	20	-23	12.5	14.0	-1.50	6.7	16.0	-9.22
Tom Hammonds	24	24	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.10	-8	25	-33	13.2	14.2	-0.97	14.4	16.0	-1.56
Sam Mitchell	16	16	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	27	-37	17.2	13.3	3.97	13.8	15.9	-2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 88, NYK 97	0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
MIA 75, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
CLE 97, CHA 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.25,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.97,0.99,1,0.97,1,1,1	93.9%