NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	91		Excitement	9.2 [100]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +55.5%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	3.1 [736]		LVP	Jim Jackson (ATL): -18.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	12	67%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.07	-0.01	9	32%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roshown McLeod	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	6	54%	0.01	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Isaiah Rider	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.26,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	24	50%	0.23	3	-0.30	8	62%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.11	0.00	5	58%	-0.00	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Jim Jackson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	11	55%	0.05	5	-0.23	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.55,0.55	0.55	0.15	0.40	-0.00	7	112%	0.59	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	4	70%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	14	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	10	40%	-0.10	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	6	21%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	26	44%	-0.07	1	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	29.4	15.6	25.2	2.4	35.4	135.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -7.6%

ATL -5.2%

ATL -4.0%

MIA +63.0%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.7	15.2	96.8	101.1	101.7
season	15.4	15.7		99.3	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.2		98.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.0	15.3	13.8	17.0	15.2
MIA	12.7	16.7	16.9	17.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roshown McLeod	20	19	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.07	5	-7	12	16.5	14.9	1.67	16.7	15.5	1.26
Lorenzen Wright	28	27	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-6	10	15.5	15.1	0.38	15.8	15.7	0.05
Jason Terry	42	42	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-6	10	15.8	14.7	1.08	15.6	15.9	-0.26
Chris Crawford	12	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-1	0	15.9	15.1	0.78	14.8	15.9	-1.04
Anthony Johnson	8	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-1	0	16.9	15.1	1.79	17.4	15.6	1.79
Dikembe Mutombo	83	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.39	-4	2	-6	15.3	14.4	0.99	15.7	15.7	0.04
Isaiah Rider	86	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.47	-3	1	-4	14.9	18.9	-3.98	15.5	19.1	-3.68
Alan Henderson	65	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.47	-3	1	-4	14.8	16.1	-1.26	15.9	15.4	0.48
Bimbo Coles	52	50	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	4	-10	14.7	15.8	-1.08	15.9	15.6	0.26
Jim Jackson	74	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.48	-5	3	-8	15.1	15.7	-0.66	15.6	16.1	-0.52

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	69	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.50	7	-5	12	15.9	15.3	0.58	15.5	14.5	1.04
P.J. Brown	49	51	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	16.7	14.7	2.04	16.2	14.0	2.19
Jamal Mashburn	76	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	-2	6	15.5	16.9	-1.45	14.0	21.2	-7.25
Voshon Lenard	26	28	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.40	-1	3	-4	17.8	14.9	2.83	16.6	14.7	1.96
Dan Majerle	58	60	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.50	-6	8	-14	15.8	15.6	0.19	15.9	14.0	1.89
Rodney Buford	48	48	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	-5	12	16.0	15.5	0.46	16.7	13.7	3.10
Clar. Weatherspoon	34	35	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	-2	6	14.6	16.4	-1.78	14.8	15.5	-0.74
Anthony Carter	68	68	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	0	2	15.0	17.7	-2.72	14.4	17.4	-2.97
Duane Causwell	32	32	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.04	-8	10	-18	15.2	16.0	-0.89	13.6	16.1	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 88, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.46,0.76,0.59,1	92.7%
SAC 78, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.73,1	92.6%
DET 101, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.61,0.9,0.95,0.83,1	92.5%