NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	78		Excitement	8.2 [239]		MVP	Shane Battier (MEM): +15.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	84		Comeback	2.5 [763]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -40.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	7	69%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brian Skinner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	6	45%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Kenny Thomas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	-0.00	11	55%	0.07	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.12	-0.01	12	54%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	17	35%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	12	38%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.41	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.2,-0.26,-0.32,-0.39,-0.39,-0.41	-0.17	-0.23	0.00	20	24%	-0.38	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	0.00	7	71%	0.20	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	43%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	15	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Jake Tsakalidis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.09	0.00	8	65%	0.03	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	10	27%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	7	29%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	0.00	-0.28	0.03	17	59%	0.01	5	-0.31	7	57%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	28.8	16.5	20.6	2.4	32.1	124.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +66.8%

SAC -4.7%

MEM +7.5%

SAC -23.3%

MEM +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MEM	NBA	SAC	MEM	NBA
this game	15.9	17.8	15.6	89.7	100.0	104.4
season	15.3	17.1		104.7	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.0	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.1	14.3	15.4	16.8	15.9
MEM	15.6	18.6	18.9	18.4	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	15	16	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-7	8	17.3	15.6	1.75	16.9	18.0	-1.11
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	38	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-7	8	16.7	15.3	1.42	18.2	17.5	0.74
Francisco Garcia	45	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.17	-1	-5	4	16.4	15.3	1.07	18.1	17.5	0.61
Mike Bibby	72	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	0	-6	15.1	19.6	-4.49	17.1	20.8	-3.75
Kevin Martin	65	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-4	2	16.6	13.7	2.95	18.4	16.0	2.38
Kenny Thomas	62	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	1	-8	14.7	18.9	-4.26	17.6	18.3	-0.63
Brad Miller	59	56	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	-1	-4	16.3	15.0	1.25	18.0	17.5	0.55
Metta World Peace	79	76	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.31	-11	5	-16	15.7	17.9	-2.19	17.8	17.7	0.09

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	72	75	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.29	13	-7	20	17.2	21.5	-4.28	15.5	18.4	-2.94
Shane Battier	78	80	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-8	22	17.8	17.8	0.00	15.7	17.4	-1.68
Eddie Jones	68	71	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-4	14	17.7	18.5	-0.82	15.7	16.5	-0.75
Lorenzen Wright	53	52	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	0	6	19.3	15.3	4.03	16.5	15.0	1.48
Chucky Atkins	65	71	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	6	-6	18.4	15.8	2.64	15.3	18.7	-3.43
Bobby Jackson	34	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	5	-4	16.8	18.5	-1.70	17.1	15.2	1.89
Jake Tsakalidis	16	15	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	9	-12	14.1	18.7	-4.66	17.0	15.7	1.35
Dahntay Jones	8	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	9	-12	16.6	18.0	-1.34	16.6	15.8	0.81
Hakim Warrick	26	30	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	14	-22	19.4	17.1	2.30	16.0	15.8	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	93.1%
ATL 91, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.5,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.74,1	92.6%
DET 101, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.36,0.47,0.61,0.9,0.95,0.83,1	92.6%