NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	6.2 [564]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +27.4%
Atlanta Hawks	113		Comeback	1.6 [337]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -20.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	0.00	5	82%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	9	57%	0.07	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	14	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Majerle	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	75%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	20	55%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	20	54%	0.07	5	-0.16	8	75%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	8	0%	-0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.11	0.13	-0.03	11	87%	0.31	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.06	0.08	-0.03	13	45%	0.08	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	60%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.02	24	59%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roshown McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	14	58%	0.08	3	-0.09	8	87%	-0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	64%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	24.8	16.0	23.2	1.7	41.0	132.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +32.3%

ATL +3.2%

ATL +19.4%

MIA -5.4%

ATL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	15.2	112.8	117.7	101.7
season	15.7	15.4		101.2	99.3
opponent	15.2	15.9		105.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	17.6	15.2	14.8	15.5
ATL	14.9	13.7	16.1	14.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	9	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.06	-6	-1	-5	19.8	15.0	4.74	15.7	14.7	1.00
Anthony Carter	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-12	17	14.6	16.0	-1.31	12.9	15.9	-2.98
Clar. Weatherspoon	37	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.29	5	-12	17	15.1	15.8	-0.67	14.5	15.1	-0.54
Voshon Lenard	40	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-10	13	15.4	15.6	-0.16	14.3	15.3	-1.02
Alonzo Mourning	80	81	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-3	-1	15.5	15.6	-0.10	14.9	14.5	0.36
Jamal Mashburn	85	88	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-4	1	15.4	16.7	-1.30	14.7	16.7	-2.09
Dan Majerle	63	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	3	-13	15.2	16.1	-0.86	14.9	14.8	0.12
Tim Hardaway	61	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	5	-17	16.0	14.6	1.31	15.9	12.9	2.98
P.J. Brown	62	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	6	-19	15.6	15.2	0.46	15.4	13.7	1.73

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	57	57	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.21	16	-9	25	16.5	12.4	4.08	15.5	15.5	0.05
Alan Henderson	86	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.30	8	-1	9	14.8	14.9	-0.07	15.2	17.7	-2.53
Isaiah Rider	87	86	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	5	-3	14.8	15.0	-0.18	15.2	19.0	-3.84
Roshown McLeod	21	22	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	0	7	16.3	14.4	1.86	17.5	14.9	2.57
Jim Jackson	84	80	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	2	3	14.5	17.2	-2.76	15.3	16.6	-1.27
Bimbo Coles	45	43	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.03	10	-3	13	15.7	14.1	1.65	15.0	15.9	-0.82
Jason Terry	56	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	10	-13	13.5	16.7	-3.29	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Cal Bowdler	2	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	8	-9	7.0	15.0	-8.00	18.0	15.4	2.57
Chris Crawford	13	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	8	-9	15.2	14.8	0.46	19.2	14.8	4.38
Lorenzen Wright	29	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	15	-23	13.2	15.5	-2.28	15.3	15.6	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 101, SEA 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,1	93.7%
MEM 95, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
WAS 101, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.4%