NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	7.3 [359]		MVP	Walt Williams (HOU): +6.2%
Houston Rockets	85		Comeback	1.7 [681]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -34.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Terry Porter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	11	67%	0.17	3	-0.13	5	60%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Mario Elie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	8	83%	0.17	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	16	41%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.34	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.12	-0.20	0.02	10	50%	-0.12	5	-0.22	8	75%	-0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walt Williams	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	14	63%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	13	46%	0.01	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	13	50%	0.02	5	-0.16	4	75%	-0.00
Charles Barkley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	16	45%	-0.11	2	-0.07	8	50%	-0.06
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	14	40%	-0.14	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	34.2	17.7	24.2	2.5	32.3	136.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +37.5%

SAS +16.0%

SAS +0.2%

HOU -2.2%

HOU -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	14.7	15.2	100.0	86.7	101.7
season	15.5	15.4		101.6	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.4		103.5	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.7	13.5	17.5	15.6	15.2
HOU	14.2	13.7	16.0	15.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	59	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.21	15	-5	20	14.6	16.1	-1.51	14.0	15.6	-1.60
Tim Duncan	69	73	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-2	14	15.2	15.2	0.06	15.0	13.8	1.20
Jaren Jackson	29	30	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-2	14	15.1	15.3	-0.19	13.8	15.0	-1.28
David Robinson	66	67	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	3	4	15.1	15.3	-0.21	15.6	12.5	3.13
Mario Elie	69	71	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	7	-4	15.1	15.5	-0.41	15.4	12.7	2.64
Jerome Kersey	40	41	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	7	-4	15.3	15.1	0.26	13.2	15.7	-2.55
Samaki Walker	41	40	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	8	-6	15.9	14.7	1.19	13.6	15.4	-1.82
Avery Johnson	64	66	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.14	-2	12	-14	15.4	14.9	0.49	15.0	14.0	0.92
Chucky Brown	24	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	11	-12	16.4	14.8	1.63	16.7	13.9	2.78
Malik Rose	14	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.02	-1	11	-12	13.4	15.5	-2.08	11.8	15.2	-3.39

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	34	31	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.03	0	-10	10	16.0	13.9	2.11	15.9	14.9	1.00
Tony Massenburg	12	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.06	-6	-4	-2	12.2	15.0	-2.74	14.1	15.3	-1.25
Steve Francis	74	71	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-9	8	15.0	13.5	1.47	15.3	14.9	0.43
Charles Barkley	80	78	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.15	-1	-9	8	14.9	13.4	1.48	15.4	14.1	1.39
Walt Williams	71	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-7	4	15.0	13.7	1.31	15.5	14.3	1.25
Carlos Rogers	24	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.00	-9	-1	-8	14.0	14.9	-0.81	14.1	15.5	-1.41
Kelvin Cato	34	32	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	-6	2	13.3	15.4	-2.08	15.4	15.1	0.26
Bryce Drew	24	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.08	-9	-1	-8	13.5	15.0	-1.47	14.9	15.3	-0.43
Hakeem Olajuwon	70	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	-1	-8	15.4	12.7	2.66	15.0	15.7	-0.68
Cuttino Mobley	67	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.27	-8	-2	-6	13.8	16.5	-2.73	14.9	15.9	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.41,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, CHI 74	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.4%
LAL 97, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.01,0.04,0	92.8%
ATL 80, ORL 74	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	92.7%