NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	3.2 [707]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (CHI): +9.8%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	2.3 [32]		LVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): -9.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.02	-0.02	15	65%	0.12	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Rusty LaRue	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	92%	0.07	1	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Corey Benjamin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ron Harper	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.14	-0.03	0.08	14	78%	0.10	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Bill Wennington	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Carr	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	10	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Mark Bryant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kornel David	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dickey Simpkins	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	-0.02	-0.04	18	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.12	0.00	0.09	6	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	58%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	8	58%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	14	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	10%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	26.5	15.4	24.3	2.0	30.3	124.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +43.7%

CHI +1.8%

CHI +7.0%

MIA -3.2%

CHI +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.4	15.8	117.4	100.0	99.6
season	16.7	16.6		90.6	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.4		96.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.3	16.9	16.0	18.0	17.1
MIA	16.2	16.6	17.5	15.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	74	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	-0.17	25	-10	35	17.2	16.0	1.24	16.2	17.5	-1.26
Ron Harper	70	69	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.13	23	-8	31	16.9	17.9	-1.07	16.2	17.4	-1.16
Dickey Simpkins	64	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.16	7	8	-1	17.3	16.5	0.83	16.1	17.4	-1.28
Kornel David	37	38	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.06	14	1	13	17.3	16.9	0.45	17.0	15.9	1.09
Cory Carr	63	64	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	14	-13	17.7	15.4	2.29	16.7	15.7	0.99
Rusty LaRue	53	53	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.05	6	9	-3	16.6	17.8	-1.26	15.8	17.4	-1.58
Mark Bryant	36	35	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	11	-7	17.0	17.1	-0.17	17.0	16.0	1.03
Bill Wennington	13	13	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	14	-13	14.4	17.5	-3.16	15.7	16.5	-0.86
Corey Benjamin	20	18	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.18	-6	21	-27	17.2	17.0	0.23	18.1	16.0	2.07

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marty Conlon	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	7.2	16.9	-9.62	11.7	17.3	-5.58
Voshon Lenard	43	45	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	-0.14	3	-18	21	16.2	16.7	-0.51	17.4	16.7	0.65
Mark Strickland	36	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-16	17	16.6	16.3	0.38	17.3	16.9	0.45
Keith Askins	17	16	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.13	-13	-2	-11	15.7	16.6	-0.89	15.7	17.4	-1.70
Jamal Mashburn	37	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-9	3	15.2	17.4	-2.21	16.9	17.2	-0.26
Terry Porter	43	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.01	-10	-5	-5	16.2	16.7	-0.47	17.0	17.1	-0.06
Dan Majerle	38	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-4	-7	16.9	16.0	0.85	16.4	17.5	-1.08
Tim Hardaway	72	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	-7	-1	17.1	13.1	4.00	17.3	16.1	1.16
Clar. Weatherspoon	65	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	3	-21	16.8	15.3	1.44	17.6	15.5	2.05
P.J. Brown	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	-1	-13	16.7	14.5	2.15	17.1	16.9	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 98, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
PHI 114, UTA 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
NOP 123, POR 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	95.0%