NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	5.1 [477]		MVP	Dale Ellis (SEA): +14.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	111		Comeback	1.1 [751]		LVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): -7.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.04	7	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	14	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	15	56%	0.05	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	19	54%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.04
Johnny Taylor	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	7	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	11	56%	0.01	3	-0.08	10	100%	0.05
Bryant Stith	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	10	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.04	-0.03	8	81%	0.15	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	15	70%	0.13	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.02
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	8	78%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	83%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Don MacLean	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.04	26	44%	0.04	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	62.6	1.7	26.1	14.7	25.2	1.6	32.2	164.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +40.8%

DEN -1.7%

SEA +16.5%

DEN -0.5%

DEN -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	14.7	16.0	15.8	107.4	118.1	99.6
season	15.5	15.4		100.7	102.4
opponent	15.9	15.6		103.5	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.1	14.5	15.4	12.7	14.7
SEA	12.7	14.3	18.9	18.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Herrera	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-12	14	12.6	15.0	-2.32	16.2	15.9	0.25
Johnny Taylor	44	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.30	8	-18	26	13.9	15.4	-1.54	17.7	14.4	3.37
Eric Washington	58	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-13	16	13.9	15.9	-1.96	17.3	13.9	3.40
Nick Van Exel	77	78	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-7	4	14.6	15.1	-0.46	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Bryant Stith	46	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	6	-22	16.5	12.9	3.65	13.4	18.3	-4.82
Antonio McDyess	88	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-3	-4	14.2	21.3	-7.11	16.1	13.8	2.27
Chauncey Billups	73	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.06	-17	7	-24	14.6	14.9	-0.23	15.4	17.9	-2.45
Danny Fortson	73	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.02	-20	10	-30	15.6	11.5	4.07	15.9	16.2	-0.36

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	91	91	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.10	18	-8	26	15.5	29.7	-14.16	15.0	6.3	8.62
Detlef Schrempf	84	82	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	0	10	15.8	17.1	-1.28	15.0	12.6	2.40
Olden Polynice	61	64	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.00	15	-5	20	16.3	15.2	1.10	15.7	12.5	3.20
Don MacLean	47	47	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	-1	12	14.4	17.6	-3.19	15.9	13.4	2.47
Dale Ellis	61	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	10	-10	16.6	14.8	1.85	13.7	16.4	-2.69
Hersey Hawkins	50	50	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	12	-14	16.7	15.1	1.67	14.5	14.9	-0.34
Jelani McCoy	27	26	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	10	-10	17.6	15.3	2.35	12.8	15.4	-2.59
Vin Baker	12	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	11	-12	12.9	16.4	-3.49	12.9	15.0	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.7,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
IND 82, DAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
LAL 98, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%