NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	3.6 [665]		MVP	Vinny Del Negro (MIL): +9.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	115		Comeback	1.0 [681]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -10.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.18	0.00	0.10	20	72%	0.11	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Alvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	8	56%	0.03	3	-0.05	9	67%	0.00
Michael Stewart	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
John Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	15	50%	-0.03	2	-0.02	12	92%	0.02
Vince Carter	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	18	43%	-0.05	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.00	0.02	7	83%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	11	75%	0.11	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	10	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	9	75%	0.08	2	-0.02	10	60%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	73%	0.03	1	-0.01	7	43%	-0.04
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.08	16	53%	0.07	5	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	5	43%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.7	31.2	15.4	27.3	1.8	32.0	137.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +55.1%

TOR -3.0%

TOR -3.5%

MIL +2.9%

TOR -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.8	108.5	123.7	99.6
season	15.6	15.8		99.0	102.4
opponent	16.4	15.9		100.9	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.9	13.4	15.0	14.7	14.7
MIL	14.7	16.0	17.0	16.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-11	9	15.1	14.7	0.44	13.6	16.3	-2.72
Reggie Slater	7	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-11	9	12.1	14.9	-2.79	13.0	16.3	-3.34
Michael Stewart	40	38	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.10	0	-13	13	13.8	15.4	-1.65	14.8	17.0	-2.15
Alvin Williams	31	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-14	15	16.4	13.9	2.43	16.8	15.7	1.03
John Wallace	48	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-11	9	14.7	14.8	-0.07	16.4	15.8	0.64
Tracy McGrady	21	22	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-3	-7	19.0	13.5	5.51	17.8	15.6	2.21
Kevin Willis	29	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.07	-11	-2	-9	16.1	14.1	2.05	17.1	15.6	1.55
Vince Carter	77	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-7	1	13.9	18.5	-4.57	15.8	17.2	-1.41
Dee Brown	84	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-6	-1	14.7	15.0	-0.31	16.2	15.2	0.96
Doug Christie	71	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.07	-17	4	-21	13.8	17.7	-3.88	15.6	17.4	-1.79

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	70	71	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.04	14	-1	15	16.4	15.0	1.39	15.3	13.0	2.34
Tim Thomas	48	49	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.14	17	-4	21	15.6	16.6	-1.00	13.8	15.7	-1.85
Vinny Del Negro	45	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	6	1	15.5	16.6	-1.11	14.8	14.6	0.18
Haywoode Workman	64	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	8	-3	15.9	16.5	-0.63	13.9	16.5	-2.61
Michael Curry	61	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	11	-9	16.1	16.0	0.08	14.2	15.5	-1.31
Chris Gatling	33	32	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	6	1	17.1	15.5	1.60	16.6	13.8	2.79
Ervin Johnson	39	38	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	11	-9	16.9	15.5	1.49	16.2	13.7	2.41
Robert Traylor	47	50	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.05	10	3	7	14.9	17.3	-2.41	13.5	16.1	-2.57
Glenn Robinson	58	59	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	12	-11	16.5	15.4	1.10	15.2	13.9	1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.87,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 92, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.6%
WAS 87, NOH 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
PHI 78, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%