NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	80		Excitement	9.4 [52]		MVP	Theo Ratliff (PHI): +18.4%
Boston Celtics	78		Comeback	2.9 [323]		LVP	Vitaly Potapenko (BOS): -34.8%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.18	-0.04	0.22	-0.00	8	37%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	15	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Harvey Grant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	4	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rick Mahorn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.09
Aaron McKie	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	8	33%	-0.13	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.15
Allen Iverson	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.18,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.01	28	38%	-0.20	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.07
Eric Snow	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	8	33%	-0.10	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.2,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,0.34,0.09	0.09	-0.05	0.15	0.01	18	53%	0.28	5	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Marlon Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	2	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Greg Minor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	-0.00	15	44%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Eric Riley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	3	44%	-0.04	4	-0.14	3	67%	-0.01
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	3	25%	-0.05	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	11	31%	-0.18	3	-0.17	4	0%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	30.1	15.6	27.3	1.6	32.4	132.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS -21.0%

PHI +4.5%

PHI +33.5%

PHI +31.0%

PHI +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	BOS	NBA	PHI	BOS	NBA
this game	16.4	15.5	15.8	88.9	85.7	99.6
season	15.6	15.0		97.0	98.1
opponent	15.8	15.9		100.0	94.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	14.7	18.4	15.0	17.7	16.4
BOS	13.6	16.6	17.8	14.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Snow	68	69	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.43	15	-13	28	15.8	18.1	-2.30	16.0	13.8	2.18
Allen Iverson	86	86	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.45	7	-5	12	16.5	13.7	2.73	15.5	15.2	0.29
Theo Ratliff	44	47	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	-4	10	16.9	15.8	1.13	15.4	15.5	-0.10
Matt Geiger	81	81	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	-2	6	16.0	19.2	-3.19	16.0	11.1	4.91
Larry Hughes	43	44	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.34	-6	8	-14	16.0	16.7	-0.77	16.0	15.0	0.93
Rick Mahorn	42	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	3	-4	15.8	16.8	-0.98	16.1	15.0	1.06
Harvey Grant	49	51	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.10	2	0	2	16.6	16.0	0.56	14.4	16.9	-2.50
Aaron McKie	37	38	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.37	-17	19	-36	17.8	15.3	2.52	13.7	16.8	-3.07

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	59	60	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.08	4	-6	10	15.4	15.7	-0.33	16.0	17.1	-1.12
Walter McCarty	46	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.21	5	-7	12	14.1	16.8	-2.71	18.6	14.0	4.65
Damon Jones	26	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-2	2	13.3	16.4	-3.08	16.1	16.4	-0.31
Greg Minor	61	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.43	6	-8	14	15.7	14.9	0.80	17.0	15.1	1.90
Eric Riley	28	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.12	-5	3	-8	15.7	15.3	0.40	16.8	16.2	0.66
Marlon Garnett	29	28	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	9	-20	16.1	15.2	0.98	13.7	17.5	-3.83
Paul Pierce	78	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.38	-3	1	-4	15.3	16.4	-1.06	16.1	17.7	-1.61
Dana Barros	65	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	0	-2	16.4	13.3	3.08	16.4	16.1	0.31
Tony Battie	63	60	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.51	-4	2	-6	16.1	14.1	1.92	15.7	17.7	-2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.21,0.45,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 111, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.73,0	90.6%
BOS 88, MIN 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.43,0.53,0	90.1%
WAS 95, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.59,0	89.9%