NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	8.4 [112]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +49.8%
Los Angeles Clippers	101		Comeback	4.2 [90]		LVP	Sherman Douglas (LAC): -9.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.50	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.03,0.5	0.06	0.45	0.01	23	62%	0.61	3	-0.12	9	89%	0.04
Chauncey Billups	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.12	-0.01	12	54%	0.15	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.03
Eric Washington	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	9	71%	0.08	2	-0.08	10	100%	0.05
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	16	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Johnny Taylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Taylor	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.22	0.22	0.04	0.20	0.02	22	54%	0.22	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	5	69%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	11	41%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	65%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.08	2	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Eric Piatkowski	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Sherman Douglas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.10	-0.01	8	58%	-0.06	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	31.1	15.6	22.7	1.8	42.2	139.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +46.4%

DEN +5.1%

DEN +3.3%

DEN +0.7%

LAC -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	15.4	16.7	15.8	115.7	112.2	99.6
season	15.5	16.7		100.7	97.5
opponent	14.7	15.6		107.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	16.6	13.4	16.5	15.4
LAC	14.1	16.1	19.3	17.8	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	58	57	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.62	7	-5	12	15.1	16.1	-0.99	16.6	17.0	-0.44
Danny Fortson	80	82	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-6	14	15.2	17.8	-2.59	17.1	12.9	4.22
Nick Van Exel	82	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-5	12	15.4	16.6	-1.22	17.1	12.7	4.35
Antonio McDyess	50	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	-5	12	15.4	15.6	-0.20	17.6	15.5	2.09
Eric Williams	34	34	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.13	2	0	2	17.0	14.5	2.51	17.6	16.2	1.34
Carl Herrera	39	39	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.28	-6	8	-14	15.4	15.5	-0.12	15.2	17.9	-2.72
Bryant Stith	46	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	2	-2	14.4	16.6	-2.15	16.5	16.9	-0.40
Johnny Taylor	14	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.01	-3	5	-8	16.8	15.2	1.59	14.9	17.0	-2.10
Eric Washington	42	44	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.11	-12	14	-26	16.2	14.8	1.45	16.0	17.4	-1.41

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Olowokandi	36	35	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.14	4	-6	10	18.6	15.5	3.06	14.9	15.8	-0.88
Eric Piatkowski	47	48	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.22	-3	1	-4	17.1	16.3	0.76	15.5	15.4	0.15
Lamond Murray	49	48	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.11	7	-9	16	16.3	17.2	-0.82	16.6	14.1	2.46
Troy Hudson	21	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-6	10	16.3	16.9	-0.57	15.5	15.4	0.07
Tyrone Nesby	76	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-3	4	16.7	16.6	0.09	14.9	18.7	-3.80
Rodney Rogers	33	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-1	0	17.1	16.5	0.58	16.6	14.8	1.74
Maurice Taylor	64	64	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.49	-6	4	-10	16.7	16.7	-0.01	15.0	16.6	-1.60
Sherman Douglas	70	70	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.60	-8	6	-14	16.7	16.8	-0.16	15.2	16.3	-1.10
Lorenzen Wright	54	53	-0.92	0.42	-1.35	-0.69	-8	6	-14	15.5	18.6	-3.06	15.7	15.1	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.35,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 108, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.27,0	91.9%
LAL 104, MIN 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.61,0.36,0.09,0.04,0	91.6%
NOP 110, PHX 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.63,0.62,0.54,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.32,0.45,0.22,0.28,0	90.7%